U.S. and Canada’s Trade Balance and employment figures are the most influential events on our calendar before we close another week of trade. Here is an outlook on today’s events.

In the US, Unemployment Claims an important signal of overall economic health expecting to continue last week’s drop by another 2k reaching 470K.

Later in the US, Trade Balance deficit grew wider than expected by growing to almost 50 billion a decrease to in deficit to 47.4B is expected now.

Finally in the US, Crude Oil Inventories released weekly expected a small increase of 0.7M after 3.4M increase last week.

In Canada, Trade Balance usually in surplus experienced an unexpected deficit of 1.1 billion last month, a smaller deficit of 0.8 billion is expected now.
More in Canada, New Housing Price Index measuring Change in the selling price of new homes released monthly is predicted the same rise of 1.0% as in June and Housing Starts is predicted 185K new building starts 4000 less than in the previous month.

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

In Europe, European Central Bank Monthly Bulletin is released reveals the statistical data that the ECB Governing Board evaluated when making the latest interest rate decision, and provides detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions from the bank’s viewpoint.

Also in Europe, Deutsche Bundesbank President Axel Weber speaks at the Household Heterogenity and Finance Conference at the Federal Reserve Bank, in Cleveland could affect interest rates and provide information on future monetary policy.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.

In Great Britain, British rate decision will probably stay at 0.50% once again in spite intentions to raise rates to respond to the rising inflation.

More in Great Britain, Asset Purchase Facility measuring the total value of money the BOE will create and use to purchase assets in the open market expected to remain 200B as in the previous month.

Later in Great Britain, Trade Balance deficit is forecasted another 100,000K increase from July reaching 7.5B.

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

In Australia, employment data  gained 25.3K expecting to further grow to 27.2K and the unemployment rate is expected to fall back down to 5.2% following 2.3% in July.

More in Australia, Assistant Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia Dr. Guy Debelle speaks at the Westpac Macro Strategy Forum, in Sydney. He’s responsible for advising Reserve Bank Board members – who decide where to set the nation’s key interest rates. May affect interest rates and provide information on future monetary policy

For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In Japan, Final Gross Domestic Product expected 0.4% rise this quarter following a mere 0.1% rise in the previous quarter.

More in Japan, Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes is released providing a detailed record of the BOJ Policy Board’s meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

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U.S. and Canada’s Trade Balance and employment figures are the most influential events on our calendar before we close another week of trade. Here is an outlook on today’s events.

In the US, Unemployment Claims an important signal of overall economic health expecting to continue last week’s drop by another 2k reaching 470K.

Later in the US, Trade Balance deficit grew wider than expected by growing to almost 50 billion a decrease to in deficit to 47.4B is expected now.

Finally in the US, Crude Oil Inventories released weekly expected a small increase of 0.7M after 3.4M increase last week.

In Canada, Trade Balance usually in surplus experienced an unexpected deficit of 1.1 billion last month, a smaller deficit of 0.8 billion is expected now.
More in Canada, New Housing Price Index measuring Change in the selling price of new homes released monthly is predicted the same rise of 1.0% as in June and Housing Starts is predicted 185K new building starts 4000 less than in the previous month.

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

In Europe, European Central Bank Monthly Bulletin is released reveals the statistical data that the ECB Governing Board evaluated when making the latest interest rate decision, and provides detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions from the bank’s viewpoint.

Also in Europe, Deutsche Bundesbank President Axel Weber speaks at the Household Heterogenity and Finance Conference at the Federal Reserve Bank, in Cleveland could affect interest rates and provide information on future monetary policy.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.

In Great Britain, British rate decision will probably stay at 0.50% once again in spite intentions to raise rates to respond to the rising inflation.

More in Great Britain, Asset Purchase Facility measuring the total value of money the BOE will create and use to purchase assets in the open market expected to remain 200B as in the previous month.

Later in Great Britain, Trade Balance deficit is forecasted another 100,000K increase from July reaching 7.5B.

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

In Australia, employment data  gained 25.3K expecting to further grow to 27.2K and the unemployment rate is expected to fall back down to 5.2% following 2.3% in July.

More in Australia, Assistant Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia Dr. Guy Debelle speaks at the Westpac Macro Strategy Forum, in Sydney. He’s responsible for advising Reserve Bank Board members – who decide where to set the nation’s key interest rates. May affect interest rates and provide information on future monetary policy

For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In Japan, Final Gross Domestic Product expected 0.4% rise this quarter following a mere 0.1% rise in the previous quarter.

More in Japan, Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes is released providing a detailed record of the BOJ Policy Board’s meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

The upcoming week features less US figures after the Non-Farm Payrolls. Rate decisions in Japan, Australia, Canada and Britain are the highlights. Here’s an outlook for the major market moving events.

Monday is Labor Day in the US and Canada. The markets will be more quiet than usual, but Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls will still echo in the markets.

1. Japanese rate decision: Published on Tuesday, early morning. The recent BOJ meeting, that was an emergency meeting, failed to bring a big change, especially no coordinated intervention. Also in this decision, intervention to weaken the yen will be closely watched. This already became a heated political issue in Japan, as Ozawa, a candidate for Japan’s No.1 position pressures Premier Kan to do something. There’s no chance of a rate hike of course.
2. Australian rate decision: Published on Tuesday at 4:30 GMT. After six rate hikes, the RBA left the Cash Rate unchanged at 4.50% for many months after the higher rate managed to cool the housing sector. With the economy picking up strongly once again, there’s a small chance of a hike to 4.75%, but the consensus stands on another month of pause. It’s important to watch the accompanying rate statement for clues about the next decision.
3. Canadian rate decision: Published on Wednesday at 13:00 GMT. In this case, it’s quite unclear whether Mark Carney and co. will hike the rate for a third time to 1% or leave it unchanged. The second rate hike was accompanied by lower expectations for Canada. It seems that the slowdown of the US, Canada’s main partner, has already cooled Canadian prices and the bank can pause now, but other figures point to a hike. So, any decision will rock the loonie.
4. US Beige Book: Published on Wednesday at 18:00. This important collection of economic data is part of what the Federal Reserve sees before making its decision, that will be made two weeks later. Following the groundbreaking decision to renew the bond buying scheme and the statement that the economy slowed down more than expected, it will be interesting to see what awaits the Federal Reserve now.
5. Australian employment data: Published on Thursday at 1:30 GMT. After many months of super strong figures, last month’s employment figures were somewhat mixed in Australia. Employment Change rose by 23.5K, slightly better than expected, but the unemployment rate rose to 5.3%, which was a disappointment. A similar gain in jobs, 25.3K is expected now. The unemployment is expected to fall back down to 5.2%.
6. British rate decision: Published on Thursday at 11:00 GMT. There’s still only member of the British MPC that wants a rate hike – Andrew Sentance. This came in response to the rising inflation, which has weakened in the meantime, as Mervyn King had expected. So, the chances of a rate hike are lower now. The British Official Bank ate will probably stay at 0.50% once again. The wording of the MPC Rate Statement will be interesting to watch.
7. US Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. As always, this weekly release of sensitive job data always rocks the markets. It’s the first release after the Non-Farm Payrolls. Following last week’s slide to 472K, another small slide is expected now, to 470K.
8. US and Canadian Trade Balance: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. This double-feature release always rocks USD/CAD. Canada’s deficit unexpectedly grew to over 1 billion last month, getting further away from a surplus Canada enjoyed for quite some time. The US deficit also disappointed by growing to almost 50 billion. Both deficits are expected to squeeze.
9. Canadian employment data: Published on Friday at 11:00 GMT. After three superb months of big gains in jobs, last month saw a correction with a loss of 9300 jobs and a rise of the unemployment rate back to the round number of 8%. While the rate isn’t expected to move, a nice gain of 17.6K will probably be seen now, helping the loonie.

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverages on specific currencies.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
• For EUR/USD, check out  the Euro/Dollar Forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD/USD forecast.
• For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free..

The Pound showed weakness in the past week, and is now facing important tests. The upcoming week consists of a rate decision among other important releases. Here’s an outlook for the British events and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

GBP/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

When the dollar strengthened on Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls, the Pound suffered. When the dollar later retreated on the disappointing services PMI, the Pound only partially recovered. This is a sign of its weakness. Will it continue downwards this week? Let’s see:

1. Halifax HPI: Publication time unknown. Delayed from last week. This house price index, is one of the most accurate available, as it’s based on internal data from HBOS, one of the biggest banks in Britain. According to the bank, a three month slump in house prices stopped last month with a neat 0.6% rise. But this time, a 0.3% drop is predicted.
2. BRC Retail Sales Monitor: Published on Monday at 23:00 GMT. This indicator serves as hint for the official retail sales figure. It measures the change in volume of sales, but only for the members of the BRC. The index rose nicely in the past three months, but could dip this time, especially after last month’s growth was weak.
3. Manufacturing Production: Published on Wednesday at 8:30 GMT. Manufacturing output disappointed is the past three months by falling short of expectations, or even dropping. This gauge of the economy always rocks the Pound. Last month’s 0.3% rise will probably be followed by a similar rise this time. Note that manufacturing is part of the wider industrial production figure (expected to rise by 0.4% after dropping by 0.5% last time), but manufacturing is in the limelight.
4. NIESR GDP Estimate: Published on Wednesday at 14:00 GMT. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research publishes its highly regarded estimate of GDP every month, filling in the gap for the official government releases. The estimate for the three months that ended in July stood on 0.9%,  lower than the official 1.2% growth seen in Q2. We’ll now get news about the three months that ended in August – more information about the third quarter.
5. Trade Balance: Published on Thursday at 8:30 GMT. Britain’s deficit fell from 8 to 7.4 billion last month, boosting the Pound. This time, it’s expected to slip back up to 7.5 billion. A big disappointment can definitely hurt the Pound, as it happened when trade balance deficit jumped in May.
6. Rate decision: Published on Thursday at 11:45 GMT.  There’s still only a single member of the MPC that voted for a rate hike – Andrew Sentance. This came in response to the rising inflation, which has weakened recently, as Mervyn King had expected. So, the chances of a rate hike are lower now. The British Official Bank ate will probably stay at 0.50% once again. The wording of the MPC Rate Statement will be interesting to watch, as it may signal the roadmap for an exit strategy.
7. PPI: Published on Friday at 8:30 GMT. PPI Input, the secondary indicator of inflation was negative in the past three months, showing a significant drop in prices. The surprising drop of 1% last month will probably be followed by a 0.2% rise this time. Only a big leap will send a signal that also consumer inflation is on the rise, but this is unlikely – it will probably remain contained – showing that there’s no pressure for a rate hike. PPI Output is also expected to post a small gain – 0.1%.
8. CB Leading Index: Published on Friday at 9:00 GMT. This composite index of 7 economic indicators is based on data that has already been released. Nevertheless, it still has an impact on cable. Last month it rose by 0.5%, and the rise will probably be more moderate now.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

U.S. Unemployment Claims, Building Permits in Canada and the European Central Bank Interest Rate Announcement make the headlines. Here is an outlook on today’s market moving events.

In the US, Unemployment Claims predicted to decrease by 1000 compared to previous week reaching 456K.

More in the US, Natural Gas Storage has increased by 28B last week and is likely to continue with a similar rise.

In Canada, Building Permits forecasted 0.6% rise after an unexpected dip of 10.8% in May.

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

In Europe, European Central Bank Interest Rate Announcement may not yet be in a position to start raising rates despite of the positive outcome of the European banks stress tests, which for the time being have managed to calm investors’ fears of contagion from the sovereign debt crisis in the Euro-zone.

More in Europe, German Factory Orders are expected to rise by 1.5% following the unpredicted decrease of 0.5% in May.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.

In Great Britain, Bank of England Interest Rate Announcement is not expected to make any changes to their current record low interest rate of 0.5%.
More in Great Britain, Asset Purchase Facility, measuring the total value of money the BOE will create and use to purchase assets in the open market is predicted to remain 200B.

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

In Australia, AIG Construction Index based on a survey of about 120 construction companies reached 46.4 points and went below the 50 point line will hopefully rise again this month.

For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

U.S. Unemployment Claims, Building Permits in Canada and the European Central Bank Interest Rate Announcement make the headlines. Here is an outlook on today’s market moving events.

In the US, Unemployment Claims predicted to decrease by 1000 compared to previous week reaching 456K.

More in the US, Natural Gas Storage has increased by 28B last week and is likely to continue with a similar rise.

In Canada, Building Permits forecasted 0.6% rise after an unexpected dip of 10.8% in May.

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

In Europe, European Central Bank Interest Rate Announcement may not yet be in a position to start raising rates despite of the positive outcome of the European banks stress tests, which for the time being have managed to calm investors’ fears of contagion from the sovereign debt crisis in the Euro-zone.

More in Europe, German Factory Orders are expected to rise by 1.5% following the unpredicted decrease of 0.5% in May.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.

In Great Britain, Bank of England Interest Rate Announcement is not expected to make any changes to their current record low interest rate of 0.5%.
More in Great Britain, Asset Purchase Facility, measuring the total value of money the BOE will create and use to purchase assets in the open market is predicted to remain 200B.

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

In Australia, AIG Construction Index based on a survey of about 120 construction companies reached 46.4 points and went below the 50 point line will hopefully rise again this month.

For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

After the Non-Farm Payrolls, the upcoming week features many rate decisions and employment data from Australia and Canada. Here’s an outlook for the major events that will move the markets this week.

The debt issues in Europe, and the growing fear of a double dip recession, continue accompanying us all the time. The situation in the US isn’t much better… Let’s start:

1. American ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Published on Monday at 14:00 GMT. This figure is usually released before the Non-Farm Payrolls, and it will be interesting to see the impact of this timing, also during the Independence Day Weekend. The indicator has been positive, showing economic expansion (above 50) for some time. In the past 3 months, the score repeated itself – 55.4 points. A similar number is expected this time as well.
2. Australian rate decision: Published on Tuesday at 4:30 GMT. After six rate hikes, Glenn Stevens paused last time. The rate hikes already took their toll on the housing market, yet employment continues to be good. The RBA will probably leave the rates unchanged once again at 4.5%, so the focus will be on the rate statement – hints for future moves.
3. Australian employment data: Published on Thursday at 1:30 GMT. Last month’s Australian employment numbers were great, with a nice gain in jobs and a big drop in the unemployment rate to 5.2%. Both figures are expected to remain almost unchanged this time, but the Aussie (and also the kiwi) will shake on any outcome.
4. British rate decision: Published on Thursday at 11:00 GMT. After we’ve seen one member, Andrew Sentance, vote for a rate hike after seeing inflation rising, there’s a greater chance of it happening now. The Official Bank Rate stands on 0.5% for a long time. The rate statement, and especially any mention of inflation will be closely watched and will rock the Pound.
5. European rate decision: Published on Thursday at 11:45 GMT. JEan-Claude Trichet’s ECB isn’t expected to move the European Minimum Bid Rate. The dire situation in Europe is likely to result in leaving the rate at 1%. His words about the economic situation in the ECB Press Conference, 45 minutes later, will shake the Euro.
6. American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. This weekly release is always of high significance, even if the changes are quite minor in recent weeks. A drop under 430K will be a positive sign, while a rise over 480K will be alarming.
7. Canadian employment data: Published on Friday at 11:00 GMT. Canada’s employment change number exceeded expectations in the past two months, rising above 100K two months ago and nearly 25K last month. The unemployment rate, which has stabilized at 8.1% in the past two months, isn’t expected to move this time.

That’s it for the major events this week. The in-depth reviews for specific currencies will be published relatively late this weekend.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the forex weekly outlook.
• For EUR/USD, check out  the Euro/Dollar Forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD/USD forecast.
• For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.

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US Unemployment Claims and Trade Balance followed by Canada’s Trade Balance highlight this day’s events. Let’s see what awaits us today.

In the US, Unemployment Claims are expected to continue decreasing from 453K to 447K which is a good sign for the US market.

Later in the US, Trade Balance shows the opposite inclination expected to increase its balance of trade deficit by $400,000,000 from 40.4B in May. Federal Budget Balance is also expected to drastically increase its deficit exceeding May’s report by 55.9B reaching -138.6B may be caused by foreign aid plans.

In Canada, Trade Balance is expected an improvement of 0.4B following May’s decline reaching a balance of trade surplus equivalent to 0.7B.

More in Canada, BOC Governor Mark Carney speaks at the 35th International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) Annual Conference, in Montreal may provide insight on interest rates policy.

Finally in Canada, New Housing Price Index is expected to remain 0.3% as in May’s report.

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

In Europe, ECB President and Vice President are holding a press conference where current and future monetary policy will be discussed.

Also in Europe, European Central Bank is likely to once again leave its minimum bid rate at 1.00%.

Later in Europe, French Industrial Production is expected to drop by 0.3% from 1.0% in May.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.

In Great Britain, Asset Purchase Facility measuring the total value of money the BOE will create and use to purchase assets in the open market is expected to remain 200B as in the previous month and the Official Bank Rate is also due to stay 0.50% without change.

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

In Australia, Employment Change is expected to reach 16.1K which is 17.6K lower than in May however can still have valuable positive influence on the market.

More in Australia, Unemployment Rate will probably remain 5.4% as in May presenting an overall positive indicator on the Australia’s job growth.

Finally in Australia, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens speaks at the Western Sydney Business Connection, in Castle Hill may affect currency and provide clues to future monetary policy and MI Inflation Expectations will probably remain around 3.6%.

For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In New Zealand, Alan Bollard Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand testifies about monetary policy before the Parliament’s Finance and Expenditure Select Committee, in Wellington. This could have a strong effect on the currency.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

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