Archive for the 'ANZ Job Advertisements' Category
We start the week with some interesting updates on ANZ Job Advertisements in Australia, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet specks in Europe and more. Let’s see what’s awaiting us today
In Europe, President of the European Central Bank Jean-Claude Trichet speaks at the National Bank of Romania Gala Concert, in Bucharest. The Euro may be affected and info provided on future monetary policy.
Also in Europe, Sentix Investor Confidence index released monthly, based on a survey of about 2,800 investors expected to rise above July’s 8.2 points reaching 8.7 points. As a leading indicator of economic health it is a promising sign for the Euro-Zone economy.
For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.
In Great Britain, BRC Retail Sales Monitor measuring the change in the value of same-store sales at the retail level released monthly showed 0.5% increase in July. A similar rise is expected now.
Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.
In Australia, ANZ Job Advertisements measuring the change in the number of jobs advertised in the major daily newspapers and websites covering the capital cities showed another rise in July which is 36% above the same month last year it rose 1.3% in July after the upwardly revised 2.8% rise in June. Another rise is expected now.
More in Australia, MI Inflation Gauge measuring the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, released monthly rose 0.1% in July after 0.3% in June a similar rise is expected now.
Finally in Australia, AIG Construction Index measuring the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed construction companies reached 43.3 points in July 3.1 less than in June. A small rise is expected now.
For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.
That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!
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After a great week, another busy one expects Aussie traders. The RBA’s rate decision and employment figures are the highlights. Here’s an outlook for Australian events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
AUD/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
The Aussie enjoyed lots of good figures, with the Q2 GDP growth of 1.2% being a great positive surprise. The better-than-expected retail sales figure and especially building approvals, showed that also in Q3, the Australian economy is warming up once again. Will this lead to a renewal of rate hikes?
- MI Inflation Gauge: Published on Monday at 12:30 GMT. The Melbourne Institute’s inflation gauge fills in for the government, that publishes an official inflation figure only once per quarter. According to MI, inflation slowed down from 0.5% three months ago, down to 0.1% last month. A similar 0.1% rise is expected this time.
- ANZ Job Advertisements: Published on Monday at 1:30 GMT. The amount of jobs published in the media serves as a good indicator for the official employment figures released 3 days later. Last month saw a smaller growth in ads, only 1.3%, and indeed, the gain in jobs was slower than previous months. This time, the rise in ads is expected to slightly stronger.
- AIG Construction Index: Published on Monday at 23:30 GMT. The Australia Industry Group showed that the construction sector is slowing down, even contracting in the past two months. The index was under the critical 50 point mark, and this shows an economic squeeze. This goes hand in hand with the slowdown in other housing sector figures – a result of the rate hikes. It’s expected to recover, but remain under 50 points this time.
- Rate decision: Published on Tuesday at 4:30 GMT. 4 months have passed since the last rate hike, the sixth since the financial crisis. The hikes took their toll on the economy, and especially on real estate, so Glenn Stevens and his colleagues at the RBA decided to pause on recent months. Also now, the Cash Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.50%. The focus will be on the accompanying statement which will hint about future moves.
- Home Loans: Published on Wednesday at 1:30 GMT. This important housing sector figure always rocks the Aussie. After a sharp fall of 3.9% last month and many bad months beforehand as well, the number of loans is expected to grow by 1.1% this time, boosting the Aussie.
- Employment data: Published on Thursday at 1:30 GMT. After months of excellent figures, last month’s employment numbers were somewhat mixed. Employment Change rose by 23.5K, slightly better than expected, but the unemployment rate jumped to 5.3%, which was a quite a disappointment. A similar gain in jobs, 25.3K is expected now. The unemployment is expected to fall back down to 5.2%. Any result will rock the Aussie.
- Guy Debelle talks: Starts speaking on Thursday at 3:00 GMT. RBA deputy governor Dr. Guy Debelle might say more about the fresh rate decision, and add prospects about the future. It’s important to note that in a speech last week, Debelle didn’t mention anything related to monetary policy.
- Chinese Trade Balance: Published during Friday. Australia’s main trade partner has a strong impact on the Aussie. This time, the trade balance of the world’s second largest economy will be closely watched. This figure is also sensitive for the value of the Chinese yuan, which is closely monitored by the US. China’s surplus is expected to squeeze from 28.7 to 26.9 billion.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
The Australian dollar dropped gradually at the beginning of the week, and found support at the 0.8870 line (mentioned in last week’s outlook). It then made a sharp recovery, crossing 0.90 easily, struggling with 0.9080 and finally jumping above 0.9135 to close at 0.9143.
The Aussie is now bound between the 0.9135 line which worked as support back in April, and 0.9220, which was a support line in March and also capped the Aussie at the beginning of August.
Looking down, 0.9080 is the next support line. It was a double top in July and the Aussie leaped above it during a weekend. Lower, the round number of 0.90 provides support. This psychological number was also a swing low in March.
The 0.8870 line was tested in the past week and also capped the pair twice in recent months. It now serves as strong support. 0.8735 was a low point in December 2009 and also in July – minor support now.
Lower, 0.8567 was a support line back in 2009, and also worked as resistance in May. Below, 0.8316 was a double bottom in July and provides strong support. The final line is the year-to-date low 0f 0.8066.
Looking up above 0.9220, the next line is a very strong one – 0.9327. It capped the Aussie many times in the past year. A break above this line will send the pair towards immediate resistance at 0.9366, which was a stubborn line in April.
The 2009 high of 0.9405 is the next resistance line, and it’s followed by 0.95, which was last reached only in 2008.
I remain bullish on the Aussie.
The past week’s strong GDP figures, and a good outcome from the job figures on this busy Australian week, should provide the basis for further gains.
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro/Dollar Forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD/USD forecast.
- For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD/USD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
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We start the week with interesting news in Australia Home Loans, In Europe German Trade Balance, in Japan the Economy Watchers Sentiment and more. Let’s see what awaits us today.
In Australia, Home Loans decreases by 0.2%, the monthly a leading indicator of demand in the housing market, that measurers the change in the number of new loans granted for owner-occupied homes and provides an excellent gauge of how many qualified buyers are entering the market.
In Europe German Trade Balance, the Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month, rise by 1.8 points and Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation’s exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers
Also in Europe, Sentix Investor Confidence, a monthly survey of about 2,800 investors and analysts which asks respondents to rate the relative 6-month economic outlook for the Eurozone, indicates optimism of 2.4 points.
For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.
In Great Britain, British Retail Consortium (BRC) Retail Sales Monitor stabilized at 1.2%. A monthly report that measures the change in the value of same-store sales at the retail level/
More in Great Britain, Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) House Price Balance, a leading indicator of housing inflation because surveyors have access to the most recent price data by virtue of their job and measures the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed property surveyors decreases by 4%.
Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.
In Australia, Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) Job Advertisements, monthly data that have more impact when it’s released ahead of the government employment data rather than after, and measures the change in the number of jobs advertised in the major daily newspapers and websites covering the capital cities.
For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.
In Japan, Economy Watchers Sentiment, monthly survey of about 2,000 workers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current economic conditions, and measures the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed workers who directly observe consumer spending by virtue of their job; rise up by 0.5 points but still indicates pessimism with 48 points.
More in Japan, Current Account, a monthly report linked to currency demand – a rising surplus indicates that foreigners are buying more of the domestic currency to execute transactions in the country, rise up by 0.54 T and measures the Difference in value between imported and exported goods, services, income flows, and unilateral transfers during the reported month
That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!
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The release of employment data is the main event for the rising Aussie. Here’s an outlook for the Australian events, and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
AUD/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:
Glenn Stevens left the interest rate unchanged at 4.50%, exactly as expected. The Aussie enjoyed other figures and US weakness to rise. Will this continue? It now depends on jobs. Let’s start:
- ANZ Job Advertisements: Published on Monday at 1:30 GMT. Delayed from last week. This unofficial employment gauge serves as warm up for the official job figures due 9 days later. The amount of jobs advertised in the media made a nice rise of 2.7%, going hand in hand with the improvement seen in the official figures. Another rise is expected this time.
- Home Loans: Published on Monday at 1:30 GMT. After a few months of drops in loans – the outcome of the rate hikes, Australians took more mortgages last month. After rising by 1.9% last months, loans are expected to drop by 2.1% this time. Note that the ANZ job advertisements slightly overshadows this release.
- NAB Business Confidence: Published on Tuesday at 1:30 GMT. National Bank Australia surveys 350 businesses for this important gauge. After peaking at 19 points, this indicator dropped gradually to 4 points last month, still positive – meaning economic improvement. It’s expected to rise now.
- Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Published on Wednesday at 00:30 GMT. This bank surveys consumers – 1200 of them. After three months of drops, consumers’ mood became optimistic once again, with confidence leaping by 11.1% last month. A much smaller rise will probably be seen now.
- MI Inflation Expectations: Published on Thursday at 1:00 GMT. Melbourne Institute fills in for the government, that published inflation data only once a quarter. Inflation expectations dropped to 3.3% last month – a drop that goes hand in hand with the low CPI. This time, inflation isn’t expected to continue dropping. A rise above 4% will boost the Aussie.
- Employment data: Published on Thursday at 1:30 GMT. Australia enjoyed 4 excellent months of growth in jobs (employment change), exceeding expectations each time. This was accompanied by a drop in the unemployment rate, to 5.1%. This has been one of the main drivers of the currency. Good figures are expected again – another gain of 20,100 jobs and an unchanged unemployment rate, remaining low. These should boost the Aussie.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
The Aussie began the week with a storm, jumping above the 0.9070 it struggled with in the previous week. It then traded in a tight range between 0.9070 to 0.9135, and it eventually broke this strong barrier as well. After touching the next resistance line of 0.9220 it closed lower, at 0.9177.
Some lines were modified since last week’s outlook. The Aussie is range bound between 0.9220, which was a support line in April, and 0.9135 which was a support line in May.
Looking down, 0.9070 now turns into a support line, after capping the pair recently. Below, the round number of 0.90 is the next support line – it was also a swing low in March.
Lower, 0.8870 was a stubborn resistance line in June and in July and now works as strong support. There are many more lines below, but they’re too far at the moment.
Above 0.9220, the next line one of the most persistent lines – 0.9327, which first capped the pair in October 2009, and continued being tested many times afterwards.
Higher, 0.9360 was a peak in April and works as a minor resistance line. The 2009 high of 0.94 is the next line of resistance, and it’s followed by 0.95 which was an important line in 2008.
I remain bullish on the Aussie.
Australia continues to enjoy a surplus in its trade balance, a high interest rate, and it should receive a boost from job data, which tends to exceed expectations.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro/Dollar Forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD/USD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free..
U.S. Pending Home Sales, Core PCE and Factory Orders are the major events on our menu. Here is an outlook on today’s market moving events.
In the US, Pending Home Sales measuring the change in the number of homes under contract to be sold but still awaiting the closing transaction, excluding new construction predicted a small rise following the 30% unexpected dip in the previous month. A gradual recovery is expected.
More in the US, core PCE Index differing from Core CPI in by measures goods and services targeted towards and consumed by individuals forecasted to show 0.1% rise following previous month’s reading of 0.2%, while Personal spending in July registers a smaller increase by 0.1% m/m, compared with 0.2% m/m in June.
Finally in the US, Factory Orders a leading indicator of production expected a slight drop of 0.2% following 1.4% dip in May.
For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.
In Great Britain, Halifax House Price Index a leading indicator of the housing industry’s health predicted 0.4% drop following the unexpected 0.6% dip in June.
More in Great Britain, Construction PM, based on a survey of about 170 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories, expected to reach 58. 2 points 0.2 points weaker than in the previous month but still above the 50 point line.
Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.
In Switzerland, Consumer Price Index, predicted to continue decreasing by 0.5% following 0.4% drop in June.
In Australia, Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Announcement, following the unexpectedly lower inflationary pressures in Australia in Q2 2010, coupled with signs of a global economic slowdown, would be the likely factors that could influence the Reserve Bank of Australia policy makers’ decision to keep interest rates unchanged for another month therefore the cash rate is predicted to remain 4.50%.
More in Australia, Building Approvals expected to rise by 2.1% following the 6.6% drop in May and 14.8 dip in April. Retail Sales are also foreseen to rise by 0.4% following a 0.2% rise in the previous month.
Finally in Australia, ANZ Job Advertisements measuring change in the number of jobs advertised in the major daily newspapers and websites covering the capital cities expected to remain 2.7% as in July. Commodity Prices are likely to reach 43% as in July and AIG Services Index based on a survey of about 200 service-based companies expected to remain close to the 50 point line from 48.8 in the previous month.
For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.
That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!
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A very busy week expects Aussie traders, with the rate decision standing in the limelight. Here’s an outlook for the 13 events that will rock the Aussie, and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
AUD/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
The quarterly release of CPI was weak in the past week. This hurt the Aussie, as this convinced everybody that there will be no rate hike. Let’s start:
- AIG Manufacturing Index: Published on Sunday at 23:30 GMT. The Australian Industry Group published its first PMI-like index very early in the week. According to this survey of 200 manufacturers, activity slowed down in the past month from 56.3 to 52.9 points. Another drop is predicted this time, but the score will probably remain above 50 – meaning economic expansion.
- MI Inflation Gauge: Published on Monday at 00: 30 GMT. The Melbourne Institute publishes this unofficial CPI figure once a month, filling the gap for the government, which releases the consumer price index only once a quarter. Inflation slowed down to 0.3% last month and will probably be the same this time, or even lower. The official CPI was also weaker than predicted.
- HIA New Home Sales: Published on Monday. The Housing Industry Association showed a drop of 6.4% in new home sales, after a rise in a similar scale (6.2%). This volatile index will probably drop once again – the result of the rate hikes, but the scale will probably be smaller.
- Commodity Prices: Published on Monday at 6:30 GMT. This release comes a few hours after New Zealand’s similar release. Nevertheless, it always rocks the Aussie. The year over year change stood on about +43% in the past two months. A similar number is expected now.
- ANZ Job Advertisements: Published on Tuesday at 1:30 GMT. This unofficial employment gauge serves as warm up for the official job figures due 9 days later. The amount of jobs advertised in the media made a nice rise of 2.7%, going hand in hand with the improvement seen in the official figures. Another rise is expected this time. Note that two more important market-moving figure are released at the same time. They’re listed below.
- Building Approvals: Published on Tuesday at 1:30 GMT. After two sharp drops seen in previous months, the number of approvals is expected to recover with a rise of 2.1%. Note that this indicator tends to be very volatile, yet highly regarded.
- Retail Sales: Published on Tuesday at 1:30 GMT. This important consumer figure is of high importance. Three months of small rises will probably be followed by a fourth one – the volume of sales will probably rise by 0.4%, double last month’s rise.
- Rate decision: Published on Tuesday at 4:30 GMT. Three hours after the influx of three major indicators – the most important event occurs. The last rate hike from Glenn Stevens came in May, when he hiked the Cash Rate from 4.25% to 4.50%. Since then, it remained unchanged. Also now, especially after the weak CPI, the RBA doesn’t fear inflation, and will probably leave the rate unchanged. The Aussie will shake on the accompanying RBA Rate Statement, which will provide explanations for the decision.
- AIG Services Index: Published on Tuesday at 23:30 GMT. According to AIG, the services sector is contracting. The survey of 200 companies scored 48.8 points last month. A score under 50, as seen also in the previous month, means that the sector is squeezing. It’s now expected to rise and top the 50 point mark.
- Trade Balance: Published on Wednesday at 1:30 GMT. Australia enjoys a surplus in its trade balance in the past two months. Last month’s surplus, 1.65 billion, exceeded expectations by a three-fold. Another rise, to 1.81 billion, is expected now.
- HPI: Published on Wednesday at 1:30 GMT. This official house price index lags other indicators, but is of high importance due to the fact that it’s released only once per quarter. After a full year of strong rises (between 4.2% to 5.1%), a smaller rise will probably be seen this time – 2.2%.
- AIG Construction Index: Published on Thursday at 23:30 GMT. The last indicator from AIG unexpectedly fell below 50 points last month, triggering worries about this sector as well. It’s now expected to bounce back from 46.4 to above 50.
- RBA Monetary Policy Statement: Published on Friday at 1:30 GMT. This statement from the central bank continues the rate statement. It not only explains the policy, but also consists of forecasts for the upcoming months. Hints about monetary policy can also be seen here. The Aussie usually rocks on this release.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
The Aussie rose to the area of 0.9080 at the beginning of the week, but it then fell sharply under 0.8950. A second rise also stopped at around 0.9080, making it a new resistance line (didn’t appear last week). The Aussie finally closed at 0.9043, above the psychological 0.90 line.
AUD/USD is bound in the area that it traded in the past week – between 0.8950, which was also a support line in November, and 0.9080 – the double-top in the past week.
Looking down, the next line of support is 0.8870 that capped the pair twice in June and July. After this line was broken to the upside, AUD/USD didn’t get close to it, making it a strong line.
Below, 0.8735 was the low point in December and also a line of support recently. It’s followed by 0.8660, also a minor support line in recent months, and then by 0.8567, which provided support many times in the past year, and also served as a resistance line in May.
Looking up above 0.9080, the next resistance line is quite close – 0.9135. This was a support line when the Aussie was trading higher. Above, 0.9220 had a similar role, and it works as resistance as well.
Even higher, 0.9327 held the pair 5 times in the past year, and provides strong resistance. The next lines are close – 0.9366 was a peak in April, and 0.9405 is the highest level in 2009.
I remain bullish on the Aussie
Despite the weak CPI, the Australian economy is doing great. With strong employment, AUD/USD has more room to rise.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro/Dollar Forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD/USD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free..
This is a very busy week for Aussie traders: a rate decision and employment figures will rock the Aussie, alongside other events. Here’s an outlook for these events as well as an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
AUD/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
The Chinese move on the yuan, although doubted by many, still has a positive impact on the Aussie. Also one Chinese event is expected this week. Let’s start:
- AIG Services Index: Published on Sunday at 23:30 GMT. The Australia Industry Group has released a very disappointing number last time – 47.5 points. A figure below 50 points means economic contraction – the probably outcome of many rate hikes. It’s now expected to stay at the same zone. Actual: 48.8
- ANZ Job Advertisements: Published on Monday at 1:30 GMT. The amount of jobs advertised in the media proves to be an excellent gauge for the official employment figures later in the week. A more modest rise than 4.3% is expected this time. Actual: 2.7%.
- Trade Balance: Published on Tuesday at 1:30 GMT. A great surprise was seen last month, as Australia saw a first surplus in over a year. The 130 million dollar surplus will probably be followed by a bigger one this time. A return to a deficit will hurt the Aussie.
- Rate decision: Published on Tuesday at 4:30 GMT. The six rate hikes that Australia already saw in this tightening cycle already had an impact in taming inflation, especially in the housing market. After last month’s pause, another pause will probably be seen now, with Glenn Stevens leaving the Cash Rate at 4.50%. Hints about future policy will probably be seen in the RBA Rate Statement.
- AIG Construction Index: Published on Tuesday at 23:30 GMT. This second PMI-like release from AIG dipped last month to 53.2 points, but was still good, standing above 50 points. Another slide is predicted this time, but it’s likely to remain above 50.
- Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Published on Wednesday at 00:30 GMT. Following three months of big drops in consumer sentiment, including 5.7% and 7% drops, this survey of 1200 people is expected to rise this time, but not a significant scale.
- Employment data: Published on Thursday at 1:30 GMT. Last month was great once again, with a rise of almost 27K in jobs (employment change). Also the unemployment rate was superb, dropping unexpectedly from 5.4% to 5.2%. This time, both figures aren’t expected to change significantly.
- Chinese Trade Balance: Published on Friday. Following the revaluation of the yuan, Australia’s main trade partner could import more Australian goods. We’ll now see if the Chinese surplus will continue growing – meaning there’s more room for consumption of goods from Australia.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
The Aussie fell during the first part of week and made a false break below 0.8360. From there it recovered to the 0.8477 area and bounced off this line as well.
Note that some of the lines have changed since last week’s outlook. AUD/USD is now supported by 0.8360. A break below this line will find support at 0.8275, which was a support line during June.
Lower, the year-to-date low of 0.8066 is the next strong line of support that is still far at the moment. Even lower, 0.77 is the next line.
Looking up above 0.8477, we reach 0.8567 continues to be an important pivotal line. A break above this line will mark a run upwards.
Higher, 0.8735, which was the low line in December, is the next line of support. It’s followed by the round number of 0.88 and then the round number of 0.90. Both were important lines.
I turn neutral on AUD/USD.
Last week’s drop in building approval and weak retail sales cast a shadow over the Aussie’s strength. Together with the uncertainty of the Chinese move, the pair will probably see some range trading. The unemployment figures can supply the fuel for a long term rally, but this isn’t expected this week.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the forex weekly outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro/Dollar Forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD/USD forecast.
- For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD/USD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
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Exiting news to start the week, in Britain interesting raises in House Price Index; in Australia Job Advertisements and in New Zealand Survey of Business Opinion showing optimism. let’s see what await us today.
In Europe, Retail Sales monthly report that measures the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level is about to rise by 0.5%. It tends to have a relatively muted impact because Germany and France release earlier consumer spending data, and accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
Also in Europe, Final Services PMI Monthly survey of about 600 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions and measures the Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the services industry shows a decries from 56.2 to 55.4 from last month.
Finally in Europe, Sentix Investor Confidence, monthly survey of about 2,800 investors and analysts which asks respondents to rate the relative 6-month economic outlook for the Eurozone and measures the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed investors and analysts; a leading indicator of economic health.
For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.
Moving on to Great Britain, Halifax Bank of Scotland (HBOS) House Price Index (HPI), a leading indicator of the housing industry’s health and measurers the change in the price of homes financed by HBOS; shows an interesting rise from -0.4% to 0.6%..
More in Great Britain, Services PMI Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI); Monthly survey of purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions and shows stability Level of a diffusion index on the last month of 55.2,
Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.
In Switzerland, Real Retail Sales released monthly and messieurs the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level, shows a rise of 1.4% and affects the overall economic activity
In Australia, Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) Job Advertisements, released monthly and mistresses the change in the number of jobs advertised in the major daily newspapers and websites covering the capital cities; shows stability on 4.3%.
Later in Australia, Australian Industry Group (AIG) Services Index, Survey of about 200 service-based companies which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions and measures the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed service-based companies and shows a contraction on 47.5.
Finally in Australia, Melbourne Institute (MI) Inflation Gauge released monthly and provides a monthly look at consumer inflation and is designed to mimic the quarterly government-released Price Index (CPI); data, and measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers;
For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.
In New Zealand, Survey of Business Opinion quarterly survey of about 3,500 businesses which asks respondents to rate the relative 6-month economic outlook, measures the Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, retailers, and service providers; and indicates optimism of 22.
That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!
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The week begins with several important events, Chairman Ben Bernanke (US) and Governor Mark Carney (CAD) delivers speeches and in Australia the ANZ Job Advertisements is released. Let’s see what awaits us today.
In the US, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Ben Bernanke intends to speak at the Dinner hosted by the Woodrow Wilson International Center, in Washington DC, may influence on the short term interest rates.
Later in the US, Consumer Credit that measure the change in the total value of outstanding consumer credit that requires installment payments, decreased from 2 Billion to 1.1 Billion.
In Canada, Bank of Canada (BOC) Governor Mark Carney intends to speak at a Conference, in Montreal, may influence on the nation’s currency value.
For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.
Moving on to Europe, In Germany the Factory Orders droop down from 5% to -1%, The figure gives a picture of the strength of demand for German industrial products.
Also in Europe, Sentix Investor Confidence, a survey of about 2,800 investors and analysts which asks respondents to rate the relative 6-month economic outlook for the Eurozone, shows an optimistic rise from -6.4 to -5.2.
For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.
In Great Britain, British Retail Consortium (BRC) Retail Sales Monitor that Measures the change in the value of same-store sales at the retail level will probably be similar this time -2.3%/
Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.
In Australia, The Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) Job Advertisements, released monthly and measures the change in the number of jobs advertised in the major daily newspapers and websites covering the capital cities, will probably be similar this time -1.2%.
More in Australia, Australian Industry Group (AIG) indicates industry expansion of 55.8 by a survey of about 120 construction companies which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions.
For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.
In New Zealand, Manufacturing Sales, released quarterly and measures the change in the total value of sales at the manufacturing level could show another rise of 0.1%.
In Japan, Bank Lending released monthly that measures the change in the total value of outstanding bank loans issued to consumers and businesses.
More in Japan, the Current Account, difference in value between imported and exported goods, is about to decrease by 0.35 T, and influent the currency demand.
Finally in Japan, M2 Money Stock info that released monthly and measures the change in the total quantity of domestic currency in circulation and deposited in banks, should decrease by 1%.
That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!
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After another week of tense range trading, another busy week expects the Aussie, with employment data being the climax. Here’s an outlook for the Australian events, and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
AUD/USD chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
The past week saw two important releases: GDP and the rate decision that were OK. The Aussie didn’t fully enjoy them. Will employment numbers boost the currency? Let’s see:
- AIG Construction Index: Published on Sunday at 23:30 GMT. This gauge for the housing sector from the Australian Industry Group jumped back above 50 points last month, indicating economic expansion. From 55.8 points last month, it’s expected to edge down.
- ANZ Job Advertisements: Published on Monday at 1:30 GMT. This is often regarded as an indicator towards the official employment figures due later in the week. The amount of jobs advertised in newspapers unexpectedly fell by 1.2% last month, hurting the Aussie. A small rise is predicted this time.
- Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Published on Wednesday at 1:30 GMT. This survey of 1200 consumers already reflected the recent turmoil last month, with a drop of 7%. The upcoming release should show a small correction – a small rise. This indicator tends to move the Aussie, due to its freshness.
- Home Loans: Published on Wednesday at 1:30 GMT. The amount of loans given towards buying homes dropped in the past 6 months, disappointing the Aussie over and over again. This is a direct result of the tightening policy by the RBA – higher interest rates make mortgages less attractive. Another drop is due this time – 1.9%.
- NAB Business Confidence: Published on Wednesday at 1:30 GMT and overshadowed by home loans. 550 businesses are polled for National Australia Bank’s survey. This important survey is already off the peak of 19 points it scored two months ago. From 13 points, another small drop is expected now.
- MI Inflation Expectations: Published on Thursday at 1:00 GMT. The Australian authorities publish the CPI only once a quarter, so this indicator by the Melbourne Institute, fill the gap. After leaping to 4.1%, expectations fell back to more normal levels – 3.6%, also a result of the rate hikes. It’s expected to remain almost unchanged this time.
- Employment data: Published on Thursday at 1:30 GMT. The best is kept for last. Last month’s employment figures surprised with a leap of 33,700 jobs, about 50% more than expected. But now, only half of this gain is predicted – 16,100. On the other hand, the unemployment rate ticked up to 5.4% – a figure which isn’t expected to change this time. Any outcome will rock the Aussie.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
The Aussie traded between the0.8240 support line and 0.85 during most of the week. On Friday the pair broke under 0.8240 but the break wasn’t convincing – the pair closed at 0.8231.
Most support and resistance lines haven’t changed since last week’s outlook, but the Aussie is positioned in a sensitive spot. The opening of the new week is critical for the Aussie. If the pair bounces back above 0.8240, the drop can be disregarded. Otherwise, it will open the road to lower levels.
The next line of support is at 0.8066, the area where the Aussie fell to in the big collapse at the beginning of May. Below, minor support is found at 0.7860, which was an area of resistance about a year ago.
Below, the 0.77 line provides strong support – the Aussie fell off from this line at the height of the financial crisis. It fell to 0.7450, which is the next line of support.
Looking up, 0.8477 is still a minor line of resistance, serving as such about 9 months ago. The stronger line of resistance is at 0.8567, which worked as a convincing line of support and resistance recently.
Further up the road, 0.88 worked as a support line, and now serves as a line of resistance. Higher, 0.90 is a round number and also provided support when the pair was trading higher.
I remain bullish on the Aussie.
The strong fundamentals that we’ve seen last week, and the employment figures which are usually good, should supply the fuel the Aussie needs to overcome the risk aversive trading that is caused by trouble overseas.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the forex weekly outlook.
- For the Euro/Dollar, look into the EUR USD Forecast.
- For the British Pound (sterling), read the GBP/USD forecast.
- For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD/USD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.
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