U.S. DAP Employment Report, ISM Manufacturing Index and Australian GDP are at the top of our market moving events for today. Here is an outlook on the economic activities awaiting us.

In the US, Automatic Data Processing Employment Report, a measure of jobs lost or added to the private sector of the economy, also serving as a preliminary estimate for the outcome of the monthly non-farm payrolls expecting a slower jobs creation of up to 20 K jobs in August from 42 K in July and Challenger Job cuts fell 57.2% in July totaled 41,676, a similar number is expected now, however the job-cut report must be analyzed with caution. It doesn’t distinguish between layoffs scheduled for the short-term or the long term, or whether job cuts are handled through attrition or actual layoffs.

More in the US, ISM Manufacturing Index, a leading indicator of industrial activity, expected to register another month of slower growth with the index pulling back to 53.2 from 55.5 in July and ISM Manufacturing Prices also predicted to drop to 55.5 from 57.5 in July.
Later in the US, The Department of Energy reported that in the week ending August 20th, 2010, U.S. crude oil increased by 4.1 million barrels, a smaller increase of 1.3M is expected now and Construction Spending expected to decrease by 0.4% following 0.1% increase in June.

Finally in the US, Total Vehicle Sales predicted to increase by 100K reaching 11.6M and Federal Reserve Governor Elizabeth Duke speaks about Neighborhood Stabilization at the Federal Reserve REO and Vacant Properties Summit, in Washington may affect interest rates and provide info on future monetary policy.

In Europe, German Retail Sales the primary gauge of consumer spending, expected 0.6% rise following a worse than expected drop of 0.9% in the previous month.

More in Europe, Final Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index a leading indicator of economic health is foreseen to remain 55.0 indicating expansion.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.

In Great Britain, House prices a leading indicator of the housing industry’s health increased by 0.6% in July.  This modest rise offset the 0.6% fall in June and is likely to increase this time as well.

More in Great Britain, Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index a leading indicator of economic health predicted 57.1 points, 0.2 less than in the previous month but overall an encouraging figure.

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

In Switzerland, SVME Purchasing Managers’ Index expected to drop 1 point to 65.9 indicating stability and growth in the Swiss market.

In Australia, Gross Domestic Product, the main measure of economic activity and growth should confirm the expectations for faster economic growth in Q2 2010 by up to 0.9% q/q from 0.5% in the first quarter.

More in Australia, Commodity Prices a leading indicator of the nation’s trade balance since commodities account for over half of Australia’s export earnings has climbed 7% to 51.0% in July and is expected a similar rise this time as well.
For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In New Zealand, ANZ Commodity Prices dropped 0.8% in July a small rise is expected now.
In Japan, Monetary Base measuring change in the total quantity of domestic currency in circulation and current account deposits held at the BOJ forecasted 6.3% rise 0.2% more than in July.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

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NZD/USD Technical Analysis

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

Another busy day is ahead with American Unemployment Claims, American ISM Manufacturing PMI and American Pending Home Sales. Many other events will be reviewed today. Here’s an outlook for the market-moving events that are awaiting us.

In the US, American Unemployment Claims: This weekly figure is still causing trouble for the dollar. Jobless claims refuse to drop below 430K, and even rise. A significant drop is necessary in order to see a big leap in the NFP. This is the last job-related figure before the NFP. A small drop from 457K to 456K is expected now. The Challenger Job Cuts report is commonly used by investors as an indicator to determine the strength of the labor market expecting -65.0% as in the previous month.

More in the US, American ISM Manufacturing PMI: Purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector have been positive in the past 10 months, sending the score above 50 – meaning economic expansion. Last month saw a small, yet expected drop from 60.4 to 59.7 points. Another drop is to 58.9 is expected now. ISM Manufacturing Prices a component of PMI serves as an inflation gauge is expected to reach 72.2- 5.3 lower than in the previous month.

Later in the US, American Pending Home Sales: The number of closed contracts for homes leaped in the past three months at very strong rates – 8.2%, 5.3% and 6%. This time, a drop of -4.5% will probably be seen, cooling down the markets.

Finally in the US, Construction Spending predicted to drop -0.6% following 2.7% rise in May. Total Vehicle Sales expected to decrease by 200,000 reaching 11.4M and Natural Gas Storage is likely to remain around 81B.

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

In Europe, final manufacturing PMI was revised down by 0.1 pt from the advance estimate to 55.8 in May, remaining the lowest since February (54.2), as output and new orders growth “slowed sharply” on the month; activity growth slowed in May across Germany, France, Italy and Spain. Another drop to 55.6 is expected.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.

In Great Britain, Halifax HPI reached -0.4% in May, weaker than the 0.35 expected and -0.1% prior reading a similar figure is expected now.

More in Great Britain, UK Manufacturing PMI coming out it is expected to read 57.6. Last month it read 58.0.

The Manufacturing PMI – which is calculated from data on new orders, production, employment, supplier performance and stocks of purchases – has now remained above the no-change mark of 50.0 for eight consecutive months.

Later in Great Britain, BOE Credit Conditions Survey released quarterly includes detailed data on secured and unsecured lending to households, small businesses, non-financial corporations, and non-bank financial firms correlated with spending and confidence – rising debt levels are a sign that lenders feel comfortable issuing loans, and that consumers and businesses are confident in their financial position and eager to spend money.

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

In Switzerland, In May Swiss SVME PMI came in at 66.4, stronger than the 64.3 expected. A slight drop to 65.9 is expected now.

In Australia, Building Approvals indicator is very volatile, and tends to have a strong impact on the Aussie. A drop of almost 15% was reported in approvals last month, but this was merely a correction for a 17% rise beforehand. 0.0% is expected now.

More in Australia, Retail Sales a major consumer-related indicator rose by 0.6% last month, showing confidence for a second month in a row, despite the rate hikes. A smaller rise of 0.3% is expected this time.

Finally in Australia, Commodity Prices: Australia’s commodity-oriented economy enjoyed a recovery in commodity prices in June. This will be reflected in this indicator that is expected to show a year-over-year growth rate of over 50%, boosting the Aussie.

For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In New Zealand, The ANZ Commodity Price index fell to 2.5 points in May from 4.9 points in April and is expected to remain 2.5%.
ANZ Commodity Price released by the ANZ National Bank is considered as an early indicator of export price changes. The price changes influence GDP and exchange rates. An increase in prices may indicate strength of the NZD, while a decrease in prices may indicate weakness of the NZD. A high reading is seen as bullish for the NZD, whereas a low reading is seen as bearish.

In Japan, Monetary Base measuring Change in the total quantity of domestic currency in circulation and current account deposits held at the BOJ expected a 3.8% rise continuing the 3.7% rise in May.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

US Pending Home Sales and Australia’s GDP are the major events this day. Let us see what awaits us today

In the US, Pending Home Sales is expected to drop from 5.3% to 4.8% after the upswing of March and April.

Later in the US, An increase of  200,000 in the Total Vehicle Sales from 11.2M in May indicating stronger consumer confidence in the US market.

Finally in the US, Challenger Job Cuts is expected another decline of -71.1% as in May’s report showing improving job prospects.

In Europe, Industrial Producer Prices are expected to rise by 0.7%, 0.1% more than in May’s report.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.

In Great Britain, Halifax House Price Index is expected to rise by 0.3% compared to a drop of -0.1% in May giving a boost to the housing industry.

More in Great Britain, Construction PMI is expected to continue its growth for the third consecutive month reaching 58.3 points. This indicates recuperation in the construction sector and suggests that the whole UK economic recovery has real substance.

Later in Great Britain, Net Lending to Individuals is also expected to edge up 0.5B form April’s fall of 0.6B reaching 1.1B and Final Mortgage Approvals are also predicted to rise by 3,000 from May reaching 50K.

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

In Switzerland, Swiss retail sales growth slows from 4.0% in March to 3.7% in April.

In Australia, Gross Domestic Product is anticipated to drop 0.3% from the impressive rise of 0.9% in the previous quarter reaching 0.6%. Nevertheless, Australia’s growth rate is still satisfactory.

More in Australia, AIG Services Index is expected to continue its rise of previous months after crossing the 50 point score in May report (52.3 points).

For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In Japan, Capital Spending continues to drop expecting to reach -9.5% this quarter  however there is a major improvement from -17.3  in October-December and -24.8% the quarter before.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

The kiwi managed to end a volatile week higher, moving mostly on  higher inflation expectations and an improved surplus in its trade balance. The kiwi will move mostly on technicals in the upcoming week. Here’s an outlook for the events in New Zealand and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.

NZD/USD graph with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:

1. NBNZ Business Confidence: Published on Monday at 3:00 GMT. This important indicator for the central bank showed growing optimism last month. The big rise from 42.5 to 49.5 points helped the kiwi, although it didn’t break new records. The 1500 businesses surveyed here are expected to be less optimistic this time.
2. ANZ Commodity Prices: Published on Wednesday at 3:00 GMT. New Zealand’s commodities are a big part of the economy, making this indicator important. Last month saw a strong rise in prices – 4.9%. The forecast is for a small rise.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

After another volatile week, which kiwi traders aren’t usually used to, the pair closed at 0.6780, between the support line of 0.6680 and the resistance line of 0.68, which was shattered in the past week.

Looking up, the next line of resistance above 0.68 is the round number of 0.70, which worked as a strong support line in the past months. 0.7050 is the next minor line of resistance, also working mostly as a support line.

Higher, 0.72 is a resistance line that mostly had this exact role in the past few months. It’s followed by 0.7320, which is quite far at the moment.

Looking down below 0.6685, 0.66 is the next line of support, being a support and resistance line in August. Minor support is found around 0.64, and the next line in the horizon is 0.62, which worked as support line in July.

I’m neutral on the kiwi.

Similar to the Aussie, it managed to detach itself from the European turmoil. But contrary to the Australia, the fundamentals of New Zealand aren’t strong enough for gains, at least not in such a light-calendared week.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the forex weekly outlook.
• For the Euro/Dollar, look into the EUR USD Forecast.
• For the British Pound (sterling), read the GBP/USD forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

Starting the week with a variety of events. ISM Manufacturing PMI in the USD, Labor Cost Index in New Zealand and President Axel Weber speak in Frankfurt; Let see what else awaits us this day, 

In the US, Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI); Survey released monthly of about 400 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions is expected to rise from 59.6 to 60 and influence the company’s view of the economy, while the ISM Manufacturing Prices is expected to droop down to 72.9 from 75.0.

Later in the US, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), Price Index, Released monthly. Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy; will probably be similar this time

More in the US, Personal Spending, released monthly, change in the total value of inflation-adjusted expenditures by consumers is expected to rise up to 0.7% from 0.3% and influence the economic health.

Later in the US, Construction Spending Released monthly. Change in the total amount builders spent on construction projects; expected to droop down from -1.3% to -0.4%

More in the US, Total Vehicle Sales monthly data reported in an annualized format; number of cars and trucks sold domestically during the previous month; expected to decrease in about 0.3%.

Finally in the US, Personal Income released monthly .Change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers expected to rise by 0.4%.

In Europe, Deutsche Bundesbank President, Weber Axel, one of the most influential members of the council speaks at the event honoring outgoing Bundesbank board members, in Frankfurt. His public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy;

Also in Europe, Final Manufacturing PMI, survey of about 600 purchasing, managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.

In Switzerland, Schweizerischer Verband fur Materialwirtschaft und Einkauf (SVME), Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), survey of about 200 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions, expected to droop down by 1%.

In Australia, House Price Index (HPI), released quarterly, Change in the selling price of homes in the nation’s 8 state capitals; is expected to drop down to 3.2% from 5.2%, and influence the housing industry’s health.

Later in Australia, Commodity Prices, and change in the selling price of exported commodities.

Finally in Australia, Melbourne Institute (MI) Inflation Gauge, Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers; a monthly look at consumer inflation and is designed to mimic the quarterly government-released CPI data.

For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In New Zealand, Labor Cost Index released quarterly, Change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding overtime is expected to rise to 0.4% and affect the leading indicator of consumer inflation.

More in New Zealand, Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) Commodity Prices, released Monthly, Tends to have a muted impact.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

The kiwi finished the week higher, and now expects the all-important employment figures. Here’s an outlook for the events in New Zealand and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.

NZD/USD graph with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:

The rate decision was mixed – on one hand, Alan Bollard declared that the rates will rise during 2010, but clearly said some factors will “reduce the extent to which the OCR will need to be increased relative to previous cycles” – meaning that the interest won’t rise too much. OK, let’s start. The technical analysis will follow:

1. ANZ Commodity Prices: Published on Monday at 3:00 GMT. New Zealand, an exporter of commodities depends on their prices. Prices have risen in the past 13 months, although the moves became more mild. Last month’s 1.8% rise will probably be followed by a similar rise.
2. Labor Cost Index: Published on Monday at 22:45 GMT. This quarterly index combines both employment and inflation. New Zealand’s labor cost rose between 0.3% to 0.5% in the past year- very stable. A rise above 1% is necessary for raising the chances of a future rate hike, but only 0.4% is rpedicted.
3. Employment data: Published on Wednesday at 22:45 GMT. New Zealand publishes its employment figures only once per quarter. The situation isn’t as good as in Australia. In the past year, employment squeezed every time. This time, the drop of 0.1% will probably be followed by a rise of the same scale. The problem last quarter was with the unemployment rate – it leaped from 6.5% to 7.3%, far higher than expected. No change in the unemployment rate is predicted this time, but the employment change number will probably rise by 0.3%.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

The kiwi had a good start to the week, rising above 0.72, but this was short-lived. It then fell to 0.71, before making a second ascent. This time, NZD/USD broke through 0.72 and bounced only at the next resistance line – 0.7320.

After closing at 0.7269, the kiwi’s range is 0.72 to 0.7320. Note that some lines have been added on last week’s outlook. Below, 0.7050 continues to be a minor line of support, followed by the round number of 0.70. Even lower, 0.68 is the next support line, being the bottom in February.

Looking up, a break of 0.7320 will send the kiwi towards the 0.7440 resistance line, which was a stubborn peak at the beginning of the year. Higher, the next significant resistance line is the 0.7634, which was the peak in October, and the highest since 2008.

I am bullish on NZD/USD.

Despite stating that the tightening cycle will be milder than previous ones, the clear intent to raise the rates pushes the kiwi higher. The quarterly employment figures will determine the next moves.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major event in all currencies, read the forex weekly outlook.
• For the Euro, read the EUR USD Forecast.
• For the British Pound, look into the GBP/USD forecast.
• For the Australian dollar, read the AUD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD, check out the Canadian dollar forecast.

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.