U.S. Unemployment Claims, U.S. Pending Home Sales and the Euro-zone GDP are at the front of the news. Here is an outlook on all market moving events awaiting us today.

In the US, Unemployment Claims was lower than expected in the previous week with 473K a rise of 3000 to 476K is expected now.

More in the US, Non-farm business sector labor productivity decreased at a 0.9 percent annual rate during the second quarter of 2010 a further decline of 1.9% is expected in the third quarter and Revised Unit Labor Costs are predicted to rise 1.3% from 0.2% in the previous quarter in relation to productivity since a drop in a worker’s productivity is equivalent to a rise in their wage.

Later in the US, Pending Home Sales forecasted to edge down 1.3% following 2.6% drop in June and 30.0% in May after a popular tax credit expired at the end of April continuing the gloomy situation in the housing industry.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies on the causes of the recent financial and economic crisis before the Financial Crisis Enquiry Commission, in Washington. Interest rates could be affected and information revealed on future monetary policy.

Finally in the US, Factory Orders predicted to rise 0.4% after 1.2% decline in June and Natural Gas Storage expected to rise by 16B reaching 56B compared to the last week.

In Europe, Euro-zone Gross Domestic Product, the main measure of economic activity and growth expected to grow by 1.0% q/q in Q2 2010, as shown by the preliminary estimate.
More in Europe, Central Bank Interest Rate Announcement, in the midst of a global slowdown and with the sovereign debt problems in the Euro-zone, the European Central Bank would not raise rates until next year.

Finally in Europe, Producer Price Index has a mute effect since released after Germany and France PPI, expected 0.2% rise 0.1% less than in the previous month.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.

In Great Britain, Nationwide House prices Index a leading indicator of the housing industry’s health expected to drop 0.3% following 0.5% drop in July and Construction PMI predicted to drop 0.6 points compared to July reaching 53.5 points.

More in Great Britain, Halifax House prices Index a leading indicator of the housing industry’s health increased by 0.6% in July.  This modest rise offset the 0.6% fall in June and is likely to increase this time as well.

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

In Switzerland, Retail Sales the primary gauge of consumer spending, forecasted to continue its rise by 2.3% after 1.0% rise in June and encouraging sign for the Swiss economy and Gross Domestic Product also predicted to rise by 0.8% following a smaller than expected rise of 0.4% in the previous quarter.

In Australia, Trade Balance surplus is expected to reach 3.11B 0.43B less than the impressive rise in June.

More in Australia, AIG Services Index based on a survey of about 200 service-based companies reached 46.6 points in July and is expected a small rise now.

For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In Japan, Japan Capital Spending a leading indicator of economic health , expected to further improve to -6.6% in the 2Q from -11.5%.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

U.S. Pending Home Sales, Core PCE and Factory Orders are the major events on our menu. Here is an outlook on today’s market moving events.

In the US,  Pending Home Sales measuring the change in the number of homes under contract to be sold but still awaiting the closing transaction, excluding new construction predicted a small rise following the 30% unexpected dip in the previous month. A gradual recovery is expected.

More in the US, core PCE Index differing from Core CPI in by measures goods and services targeted towards and consumed by individuals forecasted to show 0.1% rise following previous month’s reading of 0.2%, while Personal spending in July registers a smaller increase by 0.1% m/m, compared with 0.2% m/m in June.

Finally in the US, Factory Orders a leading indicator of production expected a slight drop of 0.2% following 1.4% dip in May.

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

In Great Britain, Halifax House Price Index a leading indicator of the housing industry’s health predicted 0.4% drop following the unexpected 0.6% dip in June.

More in Great Britain, Construction PM, based on a survey of about 170 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories, expected to reach 58. 2 points 0.2 points weaker than in the previous month but still above the 50 point line.

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

In Switzerland, Consumer Price Index, predicted to continue decreasing by 0.5% following 0.4% drop in June.

In Australia, Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Announcement, following the unexpectedly lower inflationary pressures in Australia in Q2 2010, coupled with signs of a global economic slowdown, would be the likely factors that could influence the Reserve Bank of Australia policy makers’ decision to keep interest rates unchanged for another month therefore the cash rate is predicted to remain 4.50%.

More in Australia, Building Approvals expected to rise by 2.1% following the 6.6% drop in May and 14.8 dip in April. Retail Sales are also foreseen to rise by 0.4% following a 0.2% rise in the previous month.

Finally in Australia, ANZ Job Advertisements measuring change in the number of jobs advertised in the major daily newspapers and websites covering the capital cities expected to remain 2.7% as in July. Commodity Prices are likely to reach 43% as in July and AIG Services Index based on a survey of about 200 service-based companies expected to remain close to the 50 point line from 48.8 in the previous month.
For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

Exiting news to start the week, in Britain interesting raises in House Price Index; in Australia Job Advertisements and in New Zealand Survey of Business Opinion showing optimism. let’s see what await us today.

In Europe, Retail Sales monthly report that measures the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level is about to rise by 0.5%. It tends to have a relatively muted impact because Germany and France release earlier consumer spending data, and accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

Also in Europe, Final Services PMI Monthly survey of about 600 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions and measures the Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the services industry shows a decries from 56.2 to 55.4 from last month.

Finally in Europe, Sentix Investor Confidence, monthly survey of about 2,800 investors and analysts which asks respondents to rate the relative 6-month economic outlook for the Eurozone and measures the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed investors and analysts; a leading indicator of economic health.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.

Moving on to Great Britain, Halifax Bank of Scotland (HBOS) House Price Index (HPI), a leading indicator of the housing industry’s health and measurers the change in the price of homes financed by HBOS; shows an interesting rise from -0.4% to 0.6%..

More in Great Britain, Services PMI Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI); Monthly survey of purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions and shows stability Level of a diffusion index on the last month of 55.2,

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

In Switzerland, Real Retail Sales released monthly and messieurs the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level, shows a rise of 1.4% and affects the overall economic activity

In Australia, Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) Job Advertisements, released monthly and mistresses the change in the number of jobs advertised in the major daily newspapers and websites covering the capital cities; shows stability on 4.3%.

Later in Australia, Australian Industry Group (AIG) Services Index, Survey of about 200 service-based companies which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions and measures the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed service-based companies and shows a contraction on 47.5.

Finally in Australia, Melbourne Institute (MI) Inflation Gauge released monthly and provides a monthly look at consumer inflation and is designed to mimic the quarterly government-released Price Index (CPI); data, and measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers;

For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In New Zealand, Survey of Business Opinion quarterly survey of about 3,500 businesses which asks respondents to rate the relative 6-month economic outlook, measures the Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, retailers, and service providers; and indicates optimism of 22.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

US Pending Home Sales and Australia’s GDP are the major events this day. Let us see what awaits us today

In the US, Pending Home Sales is expected to drop from 5.3% to 4.8% after the upswing of March and April.

Later in the US, An increase of  200,000 in the Total Vehicle Sales from 11.2M in May indicating stronger consumer confidence in the US market.

Finally in the US, Challenger Job Cuts is expected another decline of -71.1% as in May’s report showing improving job prospects.

In Europe, Industrial Producer Prices are expected to rise by 0.7%, 0.1% more than in May’s report.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.

In Great Britain, Halifax House Price Index is expected to rise by 0.3% compared to a drop of -0.1% in May giving a boost to the housing industry.

More in Great Britain, Construction PMI is expected to continue its growth for the third consecutive month reaching 58.3 points. This indicates recuperation in the construction sector and suggests that the whole UK economic recovery has real substance.

Later in Great Britain, Net Lending to Individuals is also expected to edge up 0.5B form April’s fall of 0.6B reaching 1.1B and Final Mortgage Approvals are also predicted to rise by 3,000 from May reaching 50K.

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

In Switzerland, Swiss retail sales growth slows from 4.0% in March to 3.7% in April.

In Australia, Gross Domestic Product is anticipated to drop 0.3% from the impressive rise of 0.9% in the previous quarter reaching 0.6%. Nevertheless, Australia’s growth rate is still satisfactory.

More in Australia, AIG Services Index is expected to continue its rise of previous months after crossing the 50 point score in May report (52.3 points).

For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In Japan, Capital Spending continues to drop expecting to reach -9.5% this quarter  however there is a major improvement from -17.3  in October-December and -24.8% the quarter before.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

A very busy week expects Aussie traders: a rate decision, the GDP release and 11 more events will shake the Australian dollar. Here’s an outlook for the Australian events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:

The Australian dollar enjoyed a significant recovery this week, finally dropping the Euro’s weight on the global markets. The crowded Australian calendar means that this trend will continue. Let’s start:

1. HIA New Home Sales: Publication time unknown at the moment. Australia’s Housing Industry Association finally provided a stable change in the number of newly constructed homes last month. The rise of 0.9% followed a drop of 5.2% and a rise of 9.5% beforehand. The forecast is for a small rise that will help the Aussie.
2. MI Inflation Gauge: Published on Monday at 12:30 GMT. Melbourne Institute’s inflation gauge completes the gap that the government leaves by releasing the CPI figures only once per quarter. Prices have risen by 0.4% last month, and this modest rise will probably be repeated.
3. Current Account: Published on Monday at 1:30 GMT. Although this figure lags the related trade balance release, this quarterly figure  still has a strong impact on currencies. Australia’s deficit rose to 17.5 billion in Q4, and is now expected to show a smaller deficit of 16.4 billion.
4. Private Sector Credit: Published on Monday at 1:30 GMT. Businesses and consumers increased their credit by 0.5% last month, a higher rate than in previous months, indicating economic expansion. Forecasts stand on a 0.5% rise.
5. AIG Manufacturing Index: Published on Monday at 23:30 GMT. The Australia Industry Group showed a big improvement in the manufacturing sector last month – this PMI-like figure rose to 59.8, a level unseen since the beginning of the global crisis. The 200 manufacturers that are surveyed for this indicator will probably show a drop, but a figure above 50 – more economic expansion.
6. Chinese Manufacturing PMI: Published on Tuesday at 1:00 GMT. Australia’s main trade partner is expected to show a similar score this time – 55.5 points. Any leap or drop in this major Chinese indicator will rock the Aussie as well.
7. Retail Sales: Published on Tuesday at 1:30 GMT. After a big drop two months ago, consumers increased their spending once again – sales volume rose by 0.3% and is expected to rise by the same scale once again.
8. Building Approvals: Published on Tuesday at 1:30 GMT and overshadowed by retail sales. After two months of big drops, this major housing sector gauge leaped by 15.3%. This volatile indicator will probably show another correction – to the downside this time, with a drop of 4.9%.
9. Rate decision: Published on Tuesday at 4:30 GMT. After two surprising rate hikes, Glenn Stevens’ RBA is expected to pause before another rate hike. The hikes succeeded in cooling down the housing sector, and the global turmoil in May create a consensus that Australia’s Cash Rate will remain at 4.5%. There are no other forecasts for this Australian rate decision.
10. Commodity Prices: Published on Tuesday at 6:30 GMT. Australia’s commodity oriented economy saw a big year-over-year jump in prices last month – 29.4%. It’s hard to tell where prices will go this time, making the release more important this time. On one hand, gold reached new highs, but oil prices slumped.
11. GDP: Published on Wednesday at 1:30 GMT. The Australian economy, that never experienced an official recession, is expected to show slower growth in Q1 – only 0.6%, after a strong 0.9% rise last time. This major indicator will shake the markets, no matter the outcome.
12. AIG Services Index: Published on Thursday at 23:30 GMT. The second release from AIG is different. Contrary to the manufacturing sector, Australia’s services sector returned to expansion just last month, following three months of contraction. The index rose above 50 to 52.3 points. A similar score is predicted this time.
13. Trade Balance: Published on Thursday at 1:30 GMT. This figure relates to April. Forecasts are positive this time. Australia is expected to see a drop in its deficit – from 2 billion to 770 million. This significant change will probably boost the Aussie.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie challenged the 0.8066 support line once again, but bounced off it and began a rally. After struggling with the 0.8240 resistance line, it rose up to 0.8550 before closing at 0.8477.

The current range for AUD/USD is between the minor resistance line of 0.8477, which was a strong line of resistance last year, and with 0.8240 which had a similar role.

Looking down, strong support is found at 0.8066, a line that was added on last week’s outlook. Further below, 0.7860 was a support line back in July 2009, and it’s followed by the important support line of 0.77. AUD/USD fell off this line with a big gap at the height of the financial crisis. Lower, 0.7450 is the line the Aussie fell to in those dark days.

Looking up, 0.8567, which provided support for many months, is now a strong resistance line. It’s followed by 0.88, that also was a line of support, and with 0.90, which is also a round psychological number.

Higher, 0.9135 supported the Aussie before the big collapse. It’s followed by 0.9327, which was a line of resistance lots of times in recent months.

I am bullish on AUD/USD.

The Aussie returned to enjoy its strong fundamentals, and take less hits from risk aversive trading. This busy week should provide more fuel for the Aussie to rise.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the forex weekly outlook.
• For the Euro/Dollar, look into the EUR USD Forecast.
• For the British Pound (sterling), read the GBP/USD forecast.
• For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

U.S. Pending home sales and factory orders reports are expected to drop while in Britain, optimistic winds before the upcoming political elections.
Let’s see what awaits us today.

In the US, Pending Home Sales excluding new construction is expected to go down from 8.2% to 3.3%, a temporary setback from the nice rise from last month.

Later in the US, a decline in the value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers from 0.6% to 0.1%.

Finally in the US, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner testifies on the President’s proposed fee on financial institutions before the Senate Financial Committee, in Washington DC; may affect monetary policy in the market and foreign governments;

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

In Europe, German Retail Sales, released monthly, showing change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales is expected to decline from 1.1% to 0.0% most likely affected by the Euro crisis.

Also in Europe, Producer Price Index showing the change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers is expected to rise from 0.1% to 0.9%

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.

In Britain, Tension is rising towards the elections on Thursday; Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index is foreseen arise from 57.2 to 57.5 points which is a fairly good score.

Also in Great Britain, Halifax Bank of Scotland (HBOS) House price index, indicating the change in the price of homes financed by HBOS, is expected to go down from 1.1% to 0.6%, a bit of slowing down in the housing industry and a drop in the total value of new credit issued to consumers this month from 2.1B to 2.0B, may correlate to Pre-election uncertainty.

However, Nationwide Consumer Confidence is up from 72 points to 80 points expressing optimism towards the nearing election which will have a major impact on the future course of fiscal and monetary policy.

Finally in Great Britain, Price of goods purchased at retail stores is expected to remain around 1.2% and the Number of new mortgages approved for home purchases is expected a drop from 52K to 50 K.

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

In Australia, Reserve Bank of Australia’s term interest rates are expected to edge up from 4.25% to 4.50%. RBA also issues a Rate Statement concerning monetary policy and future tendencies.                          

More in Australia, AIG Services Index which is a business conditions indicator released monthly, is expected to remain around 48.4 points.

For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

A very busy week expects Aussie traders with the rate decision is the key event. Here’s an outlook for the 11 Australian events, and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:

Producer prices rose by 1%, higher than expected, but consumer prices rose exactly as expected, raising the tension towards the rate decision. Also note  retails sales, building approvals and the trade balance. OK, let’s start:

1. AIG Manufacturing Index: Published on Sunday at 23:30 GMT. The Australia Industry Group showed three months of expansion in this index, similar to manufacturing PMI. Last month, the score was at 50.2 and it could fall below 50 this time, indicating contraction.
2. MI Inflation Gauge: Published on Monday at 00:30 GMT. The government’s CPI came out within expectations, so also this indicator by the Melbourne Institute, will probably not show a rise in inflation – last month’s 0.5% will probably be followed by a smaller rise.
3. HPI: Published on Monday at 1:30 GMT. This quarterly indicator made strong jumps in the past 3 quarters, including a 5.2% jump last time – exceeding expectations. A milder rise is predicted this time – 3.2%.
4. Commodity Prices: Published on Monday at 6:30 GMT. Australia’s commodity-oriented economy depends on rising prices. After 11 months of year-over-year drops, commodity prices finally rose by 1.4% last month. Another rise is expected this time.
5. Rate decision: Published on Tuesday at 4:30 GMT. Yet again, there’s uncertainty towards this decision. Australian economic indicators, especially inflation, hint a yet another rate hike – the sixth one since the crisis. On the other hand, there are mixed statements from senior RBA figures. There is a higher probability for a pause this time, but this uncertainty means that this will be an exciting event, as it was last month, with the surprise rate hike.
6. AIG Services Index: Published on Tuesday at 23:30 GMT. According to AIG, the services sector is now expecting contraction. This indicator doesn’t manage to climb above 50 points. At 48.4, it’s predicted to edge up, but not pass the important 50 point mark.
7. Building Approvals: Published on Wednesday at 1:30 GMT. Contrary to the HPI, this important housing sector figure dropped in the past two months and hurt the Aussie. Rises were expected each time. Also now, a rise is predicted – 0.9%.
8. Retail Sales: Published on Thursday at 1:30 GMT. High volatility has been seen in this important consumer-related figure. A rise of 1.2% in February was followed by a drop of 1.4%. This time, a rise is predicted. Sustainable consumer spending is necessary for further rate hikes. A rise of 0.8% is expected.
9. Trade Balance: Published on Thursday at 1:30 GMT, together with retail sales. Australia has a deficit in its trade balance in the past 11 months. After squeezing down to 1.1 billion, the deficit rose back 1.9 billion. A small rise is expected this time.
10. AIG Construction Index: Published on Thursday at 23:30 GMT. AIG’s last figure completes the picture for the housing sector. After making a leap to 57.7 points, showing bullishness in this sector, the index quickly deteriorated to 48.7 points – below 50. It’s now expected to rise back up above 50 points.
11. RBA Monetary Policy Statement: Published on Friday at 1:30 GMT. Three days after the rate decision, this indicator completes the central bank’s forecasts for the next quarter. It could contain hints about the next moves in the tightening cycle.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie began the week with a drop under 0.9220 and reached 0.9135. It then recovered but couldn’t break the 0.9327 resistance line. The close at 0.9240 is slightly lower than last month.

Note that some lines have changed since last week’s outlook. The current range of the Aussie is 0.9220 to 0.9327 – this important resistance line was broken in recent weeks several times, but continues to play an important role.

Higher, 0.9366 is a minor resistance line. It was the peak at the beginning of April. Higher, 0.9405, the 2009 high, continues to be the highest level in sight, at least now.

Looking down below 0.9220, the next line of support is 0.9090, which worked as a support and resistance line many times in the past. Below, the round 0.90 line provides further support, as it was the swing low at the end of March.

Even lower, 0.8735 was December’s low and it’s followed by 0.8567, the lowest spot since October.

I remain bullish on the Aussie.

Australian and also Chinese indicators point to a bullish outlook for the Aussie. Another rate hike will add more strength.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major event in all currencies, read the forex weekly outlook.
• For the Euro, read the EUR USD Forecast.
• For the British Pound, look into the GBP/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD, check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
• For the kiwi, here’s the NZD/USD forecast.

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.