AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

A very busy week expects Aussie traders: a rate decision, the GDP release and 11 more events will shake the Australian dollar. Here’s an outlook for the Australian events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:

The Australian dollar enjoyed a significant recovery this week, finally dropping the Euro’s weight on the global markets. The crowded Australian calendar means that this trend will continue. Let’s start:

1. HIA New Home Sales: Publication time unknown at the moment. Australia’s Housing Industry Association finally provided a stable change in the number of newly constructed homes last month. The rise of 0.9% followed a drop of 5.2% and a rise of 9.5% beforehand. The forecast is for a small rise that will help the Aussie.
2. MI Inflation Gauge: Published on Monday at 12:30 GMT. Melbourne Institute’s inflation gauge completes the gap that the government leaves by releasing the CPI figures only once per quarter. Prices have risen by 0.4% last month, and this modest rise will probably be repeated.
3. Current Account: Published on Monday at 1:30 GMT. Although this figure lags the related trade balance release, this quarterly figure  still has a strong impact on currencies. Australia’s deficit rose to 17.5 billion in Q4, and is now expected to show a smaller deficit of 16.4 billion.
4. Private Sector Credit: Published on Monday at 1:30 GMT. Businesses and consumers increased their credit by 0.5% last month, a higher rate than in previous months, indicating economic expansion. Forecasts stand on a 0.5% rise.
5. AIG Manufacturing Index: Published on Monday at 23:30 GMT. The Australia Industry Group showed a big improvement in the manufacturing sector last month – this PMI-like figure rose to 59.8, a level unseen since the beginning of the global crisis. The 200 manufacturers that are surveyed for this indicator will probably show a drop, but a figure above 50 – more economic expansion.
6. Chinese Manufacturing PMI: Published on Tuesday at 1:00 GMT. Australia’s main trade partner is expected to show a similar score this time – 55.5 points. Any leap or drop in this major Chinese indicator will rock the Aussie as well.
7. Retail Sales: Published on Tuesday at 1:30 GMT. After a big drop two months ago, consumers increased their spending once again – sales volume rose by 0.3% and is expected to rise by the same scale once again.
8. Building Approvals: Published on Tuesday at 1:30 GMT and overshadowed by retail sales. After two months of big drops, this major housing sector gauge leaped by 15.3%. This volatile indicator will probably show another correction – to the downside this time, with a drop of 4.9%.
9. Rate decision: Published on Tuesday at 4:30 GMT. After two surprising rate hikes, Glenn Stevens’ RBA is expected to pause before another rate hike. The hikes succeeded in cooling down the housing sector, and the global turmoil in May create a consensus that Australia’s Cash Rate will remain at 4.5%. There are no other forecasts for this Australian rate decision.
10. Commodity Prices: Published on Tuesday at 6:30 GMT. Australia’s commodity oriented economy saw a big year-over-year jump in prices last month – 29.4%. It’s hard to tell where prices will go this time, making the release more important this time. On one hand, gold reached new highs, but oil prices slumped.
11. GDP: Published on Wednesday at 1:30 GMT. The Australian economy, that never experienced an official recession, is expected to show slower growth in Q1 – only 0.6%, after a strong 0.9% rise last time. This major indicator will shake the markets, no matter the outcome.
12. AIG Services Index: Published on Thursday at 23:30 GMT. The second release from AIG is different. Contrary to the manufacturing sector, Australia’s services sector returned to expansion just last month, following three months of contraction. The index rose above 50 to 52.3 points. A similar score is predicted this time.
13. Trade Balance: Published on Thursday at 1:30 GMT. This figure relates to April. Forecasts are positive this time. Australia is expected to see a drop in its deficit – from 2 billion to 770 million. This significant change will probably boost the Aussie.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie challenged the 0.8066 support line once again, but bounced off it and began a rally. After struggling with the 0.8240 resistance line, it rose up to 0.8550 before closing at 0.8477.

The current range for AUD/USD is between the minor resistance line of 0.8477, which was a strong line of resistance last year, and with 0.8240 which had a similar role.

Looking down, strong support is found at 0.8066, a line that was added on last week’s outlook. Further below, 0.7860 was a support line back in July 2009, and it’s followed by the important support line of 0.77. AUD/USD fell off this line with a big gap at the height of the financial crisis. Lower, 0.7450 is the line the Aussie fell to in those dark days.

Looking up, 0.8567, which provided support for many months, is now a strong resistance line. It’s followed by 0.88, that also was a line of support, and with 0.90, which is also a round psychological number.

Higher, 0.9135 supported the Aussie before the big collapse. It’s followed by 0.9327, which was a line of resistance lots of times in recent months.

I am bullish on AUD/USD.

The Aussie returned to enjoy its strong fundamentals, and take less hits from risk aversive trading. This busy week should provide more fuel for the Aussie to rise.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the forex weekly outlook.
• For the Euro/Dollar, look into the EUR USD Forecast.
• For the British Pound (sterling), read the GBP/USD forecast.
• For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

A very busy week expects Aussie traders with the rate decision is the key event. Here’s an outlook for the 11 Australian events, and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:

Producer prices rose by 1%, higher than expected, but consumer prices rose exactly as expected, raising the tension towards the rate decision. Also note  retails sales, building approvals and the trade balance. OK, let’s start:

1. AIG Manufacturing Index: Published on Sunday at 23:30 GMT. The Australia Industry Group showed three months of expansion in this index, similar to manufacturing PMI. Last month, the score was at 50.2 and it could fall below 50 this time, indicating contraction.
2. MI Inflation Gauge: Published on Monday at 00:30 GMT. The government’s CPI came out within expectations, so also this indicator by the Melbourne Institute, will probably not show a rise in inflation – last month’s 0.5% will probably be followed by a smaller rise.
3. HPI: Published on Monday at 1:30 GMT. This quarterly indicator made strong jumps in the past 3 quarters, including a 5.2% jump last time – exceeding expectations. A milder rise is predicted this time – 3.2%.
4. Commodity Prices: Published on Monday at 6:30 GMT. Australia’s commodity-oriented economy depends on rising prices. After 11 months of year-over-year drops, commodity prices finally rose by 1.4% last month. Another rise is expected this time.
5. Rate decision: Published on Tuesday at 4:30 GMT. Yet again, there’s uncertainty towards this decision. Australian economic indicators, especially inflation, hint a yet another rate hike – the sixth one since the crisis. On the other hand, there are mixed statements from senior RBA figures. There is a higher probability for a pause this time, but this uncertainty means that this will be an exciting event, as it was last month, with the surprise rate hike.
6. AIG Services Index: Published on Tuesday at 23:30 GMT. According to AIG, the services sector is now expecting contraction. This indicator doesn’t manage to climb above 50 points. At 48.4, it’s predicted to edge up, but not pass the important 50 point mark.
7. Building Approvals: Published on Wednesday at 1:30 GMT. Contrary to the HPI, this important housing sector figure dropped in the past two months and hurt the Aussie. Rises were expected each time. Also now, a rise is predicted – 0.9%.
8. Retail Sales: Published on Thursday at 1:30 GMT. High volatility has been seen in this important consumer-related figure. A rise of 1.2% in February was followed by a drop of 1.4%. This time, a rise is predicted. Sustainable consumer spending is necessary for further rate hikes. A rise of 0.8% is expected.
9. Trade Balance: Published on Thursday at 1:30 GMT, together with retail sales. Australia has a deficit in its trade balance in the past 11 months. After squeezing down to 1.1 billion, the deficit rose back 1.9 billion. A small rise is expected this time.
10. AIG Construction Index: Published on Thursday at 23:30 GMT. AIG’s last figure completes the picture for the housing sector. After making a leap to 57.7 points, showing bullishness in this sector, the index quickly deteriorated to 48.7 points – below 50. It’s now expected to rise back up above 50 points.
11. RBA Monetary Policy Statement: Published on Friday at 1:30 GMT. Three days after the rate decision, this indicator completes the central bank’s forecasts for the next quarter. It could contain hints about the next moves in the tightening cycle.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie began the week with a drop under 0.9220 and reached 0.9135. It then recovered but couldn’t break the 0.9327 resistance line. The close at 0.9240 is slightly lower than last month.

Note that some lines have changed since last week’s outlook. The current range of the Aussie is 0.9220 to 0.9327 – this important resistance line was broken in recent weeks several times, but continues to play an important role.

Higher, 0.9366 is a minor resistance line. It was the peak at the beginning of April. Higher, 0.9405, the 2009 high, continues to be the highest level in sight, at least now.

Looking down below 0.9220, the next line of support is 0.9090, which worked as a support and resistance line many times in the past. Below, the round 0.90 line provides further support, as it was the swing low at the end of March.

Even lower, 0.8735 was December’s low and it’s followed by 0.8567, the lowest spot since October.

I remain bullish on the Aussie.

Australian and also Chinese indicators point to a bullish outlook for the Aussie. Another rate hike will add more strength.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major event in all currencies, read the forex weekly outlook.
• For the Euro, read the EUR USD Forecast.
• For the British Pound, look into the GBP/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD, check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
• For the kiwi, here’s the NZD/USD forecast.

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

American ADP payrolls, factory orders, Canadian GDP and the important Japanese Tankan indicator are the highlights of a very busy day n forex trading. There are many more events from all over the world. Let’s see what’s up for today.

Australia provides a strong start to the day with two major releases: Retail Sales, which rose by 1.2% last month, are expected to advance in a moderate pace this time – 0.3%. Building Approvals, which made a big dive of 7% last month, are expected to recover and rise 2.2%. Also note the Private Sector Credit, which is expected to rise by 0.4%, the same as last month.

On the other side of the day, the AIG Manufacturing Index and the MI Inflation Gauge will both be released, and will move the Aussie. For more, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In Japan, Average Cash Earnings will probably remain unchanged after an annual drop of 0.2% last time. Japanese Housing Starts are predicted to fall once again.

The more interesting release in Japan is due at the end of the day: the Tankan Manufacturing Index is expected to rise from -24 to -14. Despite the advance, this very important quarterly gauge is expected to remain negative, showing that the economy is still struggling.

In New Zealand, the NBNZ Business Confidence will probably shake NZD/USD. This is an important indicator for kiwi traders.

In Europe, the German Unemployment Change will probably show another rise in unemployment – 10,000 people, more than last month’s 7,000. This will be a prelude for the all-European unemployment rate, which is predicted to rise from 9.9% to 10%.

We also get an inflation figure from Europe – the CPI Flash Estimate is estimated to rise by an annual rate of 1.1%, more than last month’s 0.9%.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.

In Switzerland, the KOF Economic Barometer, an important indicator for this small country, is expected to edge up from 1.87 to 1.91 points, helping the Swissy advance.

In the US, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change will shake the markets towards the Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. A gain of 38,000 jobs will probably be seen by ADP, after a drop of 20,000 last month.

Later in the US, Chicago PMI is expected to edge down from 62.6 to 61.5 points, still quite high. Factory Orders, that rose by 1.7% last month, are expected to rise by 0.5% this time – a more moderate pace.

Later in the US, FOMC member Elizabeth Duke and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will make public appearances, and might shake the markets as well.

In Canada, the monthly GDP is due: last month’s strong rise of 0.6% sent the loonie much higher, and the expected growth of 0.5% will probably do the same.

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

The Aussie suffered from the dollar’s strength in the past week. The upcoming week is packed with Aussie related figures. Here’s an outlook for the events that will move the Aussie, and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

AUD/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:

The Aussie lost the important 0.9090 line that it broke above on March 8th. Although it put up a fight, the greenback’s strength was probably too much for it. OK, let’s start the review. The technical analysis will follow:

1. HIA New Home Sales: Publication time unknown at the moment. House prices are rather volatile in Australia. The Housing Industry Association reported a big leap in prices last month – 9.5%. This followed a small drop. A smaller rise is expected this time.
2. Guy Debelle talks: Starts speaking on Tuesday at 2:00 GMT. Dr. Guy Debelle speaks once again, and can hint on the rate decision in the following week. There’s no consensus on the decision, after it rose to 4% last time. So, his word will probably shake the markets.
3. Retail Sales: Published on Wednesday at 00:30 GMT. Consumer behavior has been quite a see-saw in Australia, but they have been on the rise in most months. Last month’s nice rise of 1.2% will probably be followed by a 0.3% rise this time.
4. Building Approvals: Published on Wednesday at 00:30 GMT and overshadowed by retail sales. Also this figure has been “wild” recently. rises of over 5% and over 10% were followed by a dive of 7%. Economists continue to be expect more moderate moves – a rise of 2.2% is predicted this time.
5. Private Sector Credit: Published on Wednesday at 00:30 GMT, and overshadowed by the previous releases. Credit has been on the rise in recent months – with very steady moves here. Last month’s rise of 0.4% is expected to be followed with a rise of the same size. This is a volatile time for AUD/USD.
6. AIG Manufacturing Index: Published on Wednesday at 22:30 GMT. The Australian Industry Group showed that manufacturing is expanding in the past two months. This index, with scores similar to PMI, rose to 53.8 points, the highest level in over two years. This result will probably be repeated.
7. MI Inflation Gauge: Published on Wednesday at 23:30 GMT. Economists at the Melbourne Institute have seen inflation ease to the lowest level in 5 months – only 0.1%. Stronger inflation, as seen in the last CPI release, is necessary for seeing further rate hikes. A similar rise is predicted this time.
8. Trade Balance: Published on Thursday at 00:30 GMT. Australia’s deficit has been below expectations in the past few months, aiding the currency. This time, the deficit is predicted to widen from 1.18 to 1.37 billion. A better result will boost the Aussie.
9. Chinese Manufacturing PMI: Published on Thursday at 1:00 GMT. After reaching a peak at 56.6 points, purchasing managers in China’s manufacturing sector eased their expectations, and the index fell to 52 points, still above the 50 mark – still expecting economic expansion. A rise back to 55.2 points is predicted now. China is Australia’s main trade partner, and Chinese strength kept the Aussie higher in the past year.
10. Commodity Prices: Published on Thursday at 5:30 GMT. Australia’s commodity-oriented economy is enjoying the recovery in prices. This year-over-year indicator showed an annual drop of 9.7% last time, the lowest since April 2009. A smaller drop is predicted this time.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie failed to break above the 0.92 line at the beginning of the week, and it began deteriorating from there, eventually losing the important 0.9090 support line that it struggled to break on March 8th.

Some line were modified since last week’s outlook. The current range of AUD/USD is between the 0.9090 line, that turned back to a resistance line, and 0.8980 – a support line a few weeks ago and also now.

Looking above, 0.92 is the next resistance line, but quite a minor one. Even higher, 0.9327 is a strong resistance line that the Aussie tested several times in recent months. 0.94, the 2009 high is above.

Looking down below 0.8980, 0.8735 is the next important support line. It was December’s low. Even lower, the 0.8567 line is the 2010 low and also served as a support line in the past.

I am neutral on AUD/USD.

Australia has an excellent economy, and this is seen in the strong job market. Nevertheless, when the US dollar shows such strength, the Aussie cannot rise.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major event in all currencies, read the forex weekly outlook.
• For the Euro, read the EUR USD Forecast.
• For the British Pound, look into the GBP/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD, check out the Canadian dollar forecast.

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

The first day of March brings a busy calendar which isn’t typical for Mondays. Canadian GDP, European Unemployment Rate and American ISM Manufacturing PMI will stand out today.

As time goes by this week, trading will be more and more influenced by the tension towards the Non-Farm Payrolls. I suggest being careful with this event. OK, let’s start the review:

Australia’s Glenn Stevens might provide final hints to the upcoming rate decision in an early speech. Also in Australia, the AIG Manufacturing Index, Commodity Prices  and Current Account will be released, with the latter expected to show a bigger deficit.

Aussie traders have a busy week. For more, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In Europe, German Import Prices are predicted to rise by 0.8% and the Final Manufacturing PMI is expected to be confirmed at 54.1 points.

The more important release in Europe is the Unemployment Rate, which is predicted to tick up from 10 to 10.1%, showing the weakness of the Euro-zone.

For more on the Euro, check out the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.

British Manufacturing PMI always rocks the Pound. After rising up to 56.7 points, the highest score in a long time, this indicator is expected to tick down to 56.5.

Also in Britain, Net Lending to Individuals is expected to drop from 1.2 billion to 0.7 billion, showing less activity. For more on the British Pound, check out the GBP/USD forecast.

In Canada, monthly GDP is expected to rise by 0.4%, exactly as the previous quarter. Note that this release completes Q4 of 2009 and should be interesting to watch.

Also in Canada, RMPI (Raw Materials Price Index), is expected to rise by 1.9%. For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

In the US, Core PCE Price Index is expected to rise by 0.1% while Personal Spending will probably rise by 0.4%. Personal Income is expected to rise by 0.5%.

The more important release is the ISM Manufacturing PMI – this figure jumped to 58.4 points, and is now expected to soften to 57.9, which is also great. A better result will boost the dollar.

Japan closes the day with Household Spending, which is expected to show a year over year rise of 2.6%. The Japanese Unemployment Rate will probably remain unchanged at 5.1%.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

The Aussie finished lower this week, suffering from risk aversive trading. The upcoming week is busy also in Australia, with a rare combination of a rate decision and GDP day after day. Here’s an outlook for the 13 Australian events, and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

AUD/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:

At first, the Aussie weathered Bernanke’s move, but fresh fear caused traders to flock the US dollar. Note that the all-important American Non-Farm Payrolls will naturally move the dollar as well. Let’s start the review:

1. HIA New Home Sales: Publication time unknown at the moment.  The Housing Industry Association showed a big drop in house sales last month – 4.6%. The housing sector is doing better according to other figures. A rise is predicted this time.
2. AIG Manufacturing Index: Published on Sunday at 22:30 GMT. The Australia Industry Group publishes its own purchasing managers’ index according to a survey of 200 manufacturers. This indicator went above 50 last month, to 51 points, indicating economic expansion. It’s predicted to remain above 50 for another month.
3. Glenn Stevens talks: Starts talking on Sunday at 22:45 GMT. The governor of the RBA will make a public appearance a little more than 24 hours before the rate decision. This speech, so early in the week will provide a strong start for the Aussie, especially if Stevens talks hints something about the interest rate.
4. MI Inflation Gauge: Published on Sunday at 23:30 GMT. The Melbourne Institute supplies an independent consumer price index estimate. After last month’s gauge rose by 0.8%, higher than previous months, it’s expected to edge higher once again. As Australian CPI is published only once a quarter, this unofficial figure can move the Aussie.
5. Current Account: Published on Monday at 00:30 GMT. This is a quarterly release. Australia’s overall balance has been negative in the past years. It has grown to 16.2 billion in the previous quarter and is predicted to further expand in Q4.
6. Commodity Prices: Published on Monday at 5:30 GMT. Roughly half of the Australian economy is based on export of commodities, so this figure is important. This year over year indicator showed a drop of 11.7% in prices compared last month. A smaller drop is predicted this time.
7. Retail Sales: Published on Tuesday at 00:30 GMT. Australian consumer disappointed by buying less last time – a squeeze of 0.7%. A correction is predicted this time – 1% rise. Note that these fluctuations go on for quite some time. Note that the tension towards the rate decision will make the impact of this important figure somewhat muted.
8. Building Approvals: Published on Tuesday at 00:30 GMT and somewhat overshadowed by retail sales. Last month saw another strong rise in approvals – 2.2%. A third month of rises is predicted this time, but in a smaller scale – 0.6%.
9. Rate decision: Published on Tuesday at 3:30 GMT. After three consecutive rate hikes, Glenn Stevens took a break and left the Cash Rate unchanged at 3.75% last month. This is still the highest in the Western hemisphere. According to some of the hints, the rises are expected to resume, with another 0.25% rise to 4%. It’s also important to note the tone of the accompanying RBA Rate Statement.
10. AIG Services Index: Published on Tuesday at 22:30 GMT. AIG provides a second PMI-like figure this week, this time for the services sector. Here, the number stands at 47.4, below 50. This means that lower economic activity is expected. It should improve this time.
11. GDP: Published on Wednesday at 00:30 GMT. The Australian economy disappointed in the previous quarter with a small rise of 0.2% in the overall activity. Australia never fell into recession. This time, the excellent job market is expected to be felt also in the GDP, with a rise of 0.9% in GDP.
12. Trade Balance: Published on Thursday at 00:30 GMT. Australia’s trade balance release relates to January, contrary to the current account which relates to Q4 of 2009. The deficit of 2.25 billion is expected to be followed by a significantly smaller one – 1.57 billion this time.
13. AIG Construction Index: Published on Thursday at 22:30 GMT. The third release by AIG is also the third housing figure. The construction sector showed a leap last month, from 49.3 to 57.7 points. A score above 50 will probably be seen this time.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie shot up at the beginning of the week, and couldn’t break the 0.9090 resistance line. It later fell, and went as low as 0.88 before closing at 0.8950, a loss of about 60 pips in the week.

Immediate support appears at 0.8850, a minor line that provided support. Below, 0.8735 was December’s low and provides and additional line of support. Some lines have been modified since last week’s outlook.

The biggest support line appears at 0.8567. This was a support line before the Aussie went higher to the 90s, and also the current year-to-date low.

Looking up, 0.9090 is now a stronger resistance line, successfully serving as such just now. Above, 0.9170 worked as a support line and is now a resistance line.

Further above, 0.9327 continues to be a strong and distant resistance line. The line was tested 4 times in 2009, and only breached once.

I remain bullish on AUD/USD

Despite the bad week, I believe that the fundamental strength of the economy and the high interest rate will push the Aussie higher.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major event in all currencies, read the forex weekly outlook.
• For the Euro, read the EUR USD Forecast.
• For GBP/USD, look into the British Pound forecast.
• For USD/CAD, check out the Canadian dollar forecast.

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

The calendar is quite busy for a Monday: the first day of February provided many figures from all over the world, with American ISM Manufacturing PMI being the highlight. Let’s see what’s up for today:

Australia starts the day with many figures: the AIG Manufacturing Index is expected to rise while the MI Inflation Gauge is predicted to remain stable. After seeing strong official employment numbers, the ANZ Job Advertisements will supply another look and will move the Aussie.

Australian HPI is predicted to follow last quarter’s rise with another 3.7% jump. Finally, Commodity Prices which have a strong impact on the Australian economy, are expected to show a lower year-over-year drop. For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In Switzerland, SVME PMI will move the USD/CHF. The beaten Euro will only receive a minor indicator today: Final Manufacturing PMI.

For more on the Euro’s busy week, read the EUR/USD forecast. I also recommend caching up on technicals from Casey Stubbs.

British Manufacturing PMI is predicted to remain unchanged at 54.1 points. This is an important figure for the Pound. At the same time, Net Lending to Individuals is predicted to rise to 1.2 billion.

For more on GBP/USD, read the British Pound forecast.

In the US, the Core PCE Price Index is predicted to rise by 0.1% after remaining unchanged last month. Personal Spending and Personal Income are both expected to be on the rise – an indication for healthy recovery.

The first major event in the US this week is the ISM Manufacturing PMI which is predicted to rise from 54.9 to 55.5 points. A higher rise will boost the dollar. Note that Treasury Secretary Geithner will be speaking at the same time, so around 15:00 GMT, the markets will rock.

Near the end of the day, New Zealand’s Labor Cost Index is predicted to rise by 0.5%, more than last quarter. This will help keep the kiwi above the ground.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.