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Gold prices have surged in recent months, which some observers claim is a clear warning that inflation will soon turn sharply higher as it did in the late 1970s. However, other forward-looking market-based inflation indicators do not support this hypothesis. Inflation indicators such as bond yields, consumer expectations and TIPS...

With the recession drawing to a close, the focus has shifted to the shape of the recovery and the implications for the eventual rebalancing of monetary policy. TD Economics believes that the most likely scenario is a gradual economic expansion in 2010, which will do little to absorb the significant...